ARK Invest sees Bitcoin at $2.4 million

The American investment firm ARK Invest, founded by star investor Cathie Wood, is stirring up headlines again with an ambitious price forecast for Bitcoin.

The American investment firm ARK Invest, founded by star investor Cathie Wood, is stirring up headlines again with an ambitious price forecast for Bitcoin. In a new report, analyst David Puell says Bitcoin could rise to as much as $2.4 million per coin by 2030.

This estimate is significantly higher than ARK’s previous projection of $1.5 million per Bitcoin, published last November. Even the firm’s so-called "base case" scenario has been substantially revised: from $650,000 to $1.2 million. The conservative estimate, the "bear case" scenario, remains much lower but is still impressive.

For these forecasts, ARK uses a renewed and experimental calculation model that takes Bitcoin liquidity into account. Coins that have been lost or haven’t moved in a long time are excluded. According to ARK, this model is more aggressive than earlier versions because it more realistically estimates how much Bitcoin is actually available on the market.

The accompanying report shows a chart of expected Bitcoin price developments through 2030, across three scenarios: bear, base, and bull. It also maps holder types and outlines a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) ranging from -39% to +72%. The bull-case scenario is based on an average annual growth of 72% from the end of 2024 to the end of 2030.

The report considers various factors influencing the expected price. Institutional investments, Bitcoin’s narrative as 'digital gold', use in emerging economies, and holding Bitcoin reserves by governments and corporations all play a role.

Especially the use of Bitcoin as digital gold weighs heavily in the bear and base-case scenarios. ARK views institutional investments as the main driver behind the optimistic bull-case scenario.

Bitcoin is increasingly seen as an alternative to traditional currency reserves in emerging markets as well. The analysis suggests the digital asset offers inflation protection along with potential for capital growth that traditional safe havens like the U.S. dollar cannot match.

With these new forecasts, ARK Invest reinforces its confidence in Bitcoin as a long-term asset and shows that, in their view, the ceiling is far from in sight.