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Bitcoin Tops $64,000 Ahead of Fed Decision

Most traders are expecting the Fed to hold rates steady, but a smaller group is still bracing for a surprise. Bitcoin, Ether, and XRP are all moving with Fed expectations.

By Zenz van der Wielen
• 2 min read
Bitcoin Tops $64,000 Ahead of Fed Decision

Key Takeaways

  • Bitcoin moved above $64,000 on Wednesday as the crypto market turned green ahead of the Federal Reserve's rate decision.
  • Ether rose 1.7% to $1,909 and XRP climbed 2.6%, making XRP the top performer among major coins.
  • Roughly 70% of traders expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%.

Bitcoin traded above $64,000 (€56,300) on Wednesday as the crypto market turned green ahead of the Federal Reserve's rate decision later in the day. Ether also pushed higher, while XRP led the major coins. The move highlights how quickly traders continue to react to macro headlines, especially when positioning is already built around a Fed meeting.

Fed in the Spotlight

CoinDesk data shows Bitcoin up 1% on the day and trading above $64,000 (€56,300). Ether gained 1.7% to $1,909 (€1,680), while XRP added 2.6%. Markets are still mostly betting on no change, with about 70% of traders expecting the Fed to hold rates at 3.50% to 3.75%. That would mark the sixth straight meeting without a move, according to CME data.

Even so, a smaller group is now pricing in a quarter-point hike. That matters because traders often reposition ahead of the announcement, which can make FOMC trading especially choppy. More broadly, rate policy still has a direct impact on crypto since higher rates can reduce the appeal of risk assets and tighten liquidity. The derivatives market is also leaning toward a quieter reaction: bitcoin options traders have been trimming downside protection over the past few days.

Minority Bets on a Surprise

The possibility of a hike is not just coming from traders on the sidelines. Citadel Securities told clients it expects a surprise rate hike this week to bolster Warsh's anti-inflation credibility, while UBS said it would not be shocked by that outcome. In other words, the market is not only waiting on a policy call, but also on a signal about how far the Fed is willing to go to keep inflation expectations anchored.

For European crypto watchers, that matters because U.S. rate expectations often feed directly into crypto prices. If the Fed does surprise, it could shape risk sentiment in the hours after the decision, even though the longer-term path for rates will only become clearer once the central bank makes its announcement.

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