Bitcoin Split: Bitwise Sees $100,000, LO:TECH Does Not
Bitwise points to ETF inflows and institutional demand, while LO:TECH warns about interest rate and inflation pressure. That leaves the U.S. Fed as a key driver for Bitcoin.
Key Takeaways
- Bitwise expects Bitcoin could move back above $100,000 this year, despite short-term uncertainty.
- LO:TECH is instead looking for a year-end range of $85,000 to $95,000 because of concerns about inflation and interest rates.
- At the time of publication, the price was around $81,500, while U.S. rate expectations continue to heavily influence the market.
Bitcoin could move back above $100,000 (€88,900) this year, but analysts do not agree on the pace. Bitwise sees room for a recovery above that level, while LO:TECH is instead looking for a year-end range of $85,000 (€75,500) to $95,000 (€84,400) because of inflation and interest rate uncertainty. At the time of publication, Bitcoin was trading around $81,500 (€72,400).
Clashing Expectations
Ryan Rasmussen, head of research at Bitwise, says Bitcoin can get through the coming weeks of uncertainty and may end the year higher than it is now. According to him, three factors are at play: institutional buying through ETFs and corporate reserves, demand for hard assets in a time of inflation and rising debt, and clearer rules around crypto. He sees those forces as more important than the short-term headwinds.
LO:TECH is taking a more cautious view of the rest of 2026. Adam Morgan McCarthy calls a range of $85,000 (€75,500) to $95,000 (€84,400) his base case. According to him, the macro backdrop is still working against Bitcoin, especially now that the market is pricing in higher rates and the Fed already delivered a hike in September.
Macro and Rates Keep Weighing on the Market
Uncertainty around U.S. interest rates plays a big role in the different scenarios. Rasmussen points to possible volatility around a rate hike at the end of October and the U.S. midterm elections in November. McCarthy says a move back above $100,000 (€88,900) only becomes more likely if the market starts pricing in a December hike less seriously, helped by falling oil prices and cooling inflation.
Those inflation concerns are not theoretical. On October 14, new data showed consumer prices rose 0.6% in the previous month and core prices rose 0.3%. Gasoline accounted for more than half of that increase. That still matters for Bitcoin, because a stubborn inflation picture gives the Fed less room to ease quickly.
Why This Matters for European Readers
The debate shows how strongly Bitcoin still moves with U.S. rate expectations, even as the market becomes more institutional. For European crypto investors, that matters because ETF flows, regulation, and U.S. macro data often feed quickly into the broader crypto market. At the same time, the spread between the forecasts shows the market still does not have a clear view on how 2026 will end.
