Bitcoin ETFs Could Triple Gold, Says Balchunas
Balchunas points to younger investors, institutional inflows, and distribution through BlackRock and Fidelity. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs already manage more than 1.26 million BTC.
Key Takeaways
- Eric Balchunas thinks Bitcoin ETFs could eventually manage three times as many assets as gold ETFs.
- He points to younger investors, more institutional money, and strong distribution through major players as the reasons.
- U.S. Bitcoin ETFs now hold about 1.26 million BTC, while BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust manages more than 780,000 BTC.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas says Bitcoin ETFs could eventually hold three times as many assets as gold ETFs. That is a bold claim, especially since gold funds at the end of August still managed about $615 billion (€536 billion). If that comparison plays out, assets in Bitcoin ETFs would move toward $1.85 trillion (€1.6 trillion).
Why Balchunas Thinks That
Balchunas gives three reasons for his outlook. First, Bitcoin has a younger user base. A 2026 Pew survey showed that 26% of Americans between 18 and 29 had used crypto, compared with 10% of people over 50. In his view, that younger group could end up managing more wealth over time.
He also sees room for more institutional money. Professional investors accounted for about 21% of the U.S. Bitcoin ETF market in the first quarter. Investment advisers were holding the equivalent of 150,000 BTC at the time, while banks' exposure had quadrupled on an annual basis.
Distribution also matters. U.S. funds have pulled in about $54.6 billion (€47.6 billion) in net inflows since launch, helped by firms like BlackRock and Fidelity offering Bitcoin through traditional investment channels. Since the first U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved in January 2024, the market has also grown fast. By the end of August 2025, the combined value of Bitcoin ETFs and gold funds was already above $500 billion (€436 billion).
The money flows still swing around, though: Bitcoin ETFs See Second Outflow Day, While Ether and XRP Turn Green recently showed how quickly investors can move between funds.
What This Means for Bitcoin
There is no clean formula for converting ETF assets directly into a Bitcoin price. New inflows and price gains happen at the same time and overlap. Still, a simple calculation shows how big the move Balchunas is describing would be. U.S. funds now hold about 1.26 million BTC, or more than 6% of the total supply.
If that number of coins were to double to 2.52 million BTC and ETF assets rose to $1.85 trillion (€1.6 trillion), then Bitcoin would need to trade around $732,000 (€637,600). At a tripling of the ETF supply to 3.78 million BTC, the implied price comes out to about $488,000 (€425,000). That is not a price target, but it does show the scale needed to match gold funds.
Why This Matters for European Investors
For European crypto followers, this is mainly relevant because it shows how much Bitcoin is now being traded through regulated investment products. The largest spot Bitcoin ETF, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust, now manages more than 780,000 BTC and holds a big share of the market. That highlights how important ETF flows have become for the broader Bitcoin market, even outside the U.S.
