Bitcoin Falls as Market Prices in December Fed Rate Hike
Traders are pricing in a 25 basis point Fed hike on December 9, ahead of the U.S. inflation report. A stronger dollar and weak Nasdaq are also weighing on Bitcoin and gold.
Key Takeaways
- Traders are increasingly pricing in a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December.
- Bitcoin fell a little more than 1% to around $74,000, while gold also lost more than 1%.
- Broader markets stayed cautious because of lower Nasdaq 100 futures and a strong dollar index below 102.
Traders are increasingly pricing in a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December, ahead of Tuesday’s U.S. inflation report. Bitcoin fell a little more than 1% and traded around $74,000 (€66,100), while gold also dropped more than 1%. The broader market mood stayed cautious, with lower Nasdaq 100-futures and a firm dollar index below 102.
Fed Sets the Tone
The market is pricing in a 25 basis point tightening move for December 9, which would put the target range at 4.00% to 4.25%. Fed Governor Christopher Waller added to that expectation by saying he supports a hike in December, even if inflation cooled last month.
According to the latest market estimates, the odds of such a move are high, while a hotter-than-expected inflation reading could even leave room for a 50 basis point hike. The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged on October 28 at 3.75% to 4.00%, after a quarter-point hike in September.
Bitcoin Remains Vulnerable
For Bitcoin, the drop fits into a weak stretch for risk assets. The coin is still down about 13% this year, making it one of the weakest major assets of 2026. Gold is also among the laggards and is down about 6% this year.
Monday’s move shows that investors are not just looking at crypto, but at the broader macroeconomic backdrop. The Nasdaq Composite has fallen about 12% since its October peak, and the S&P 500 about 6%, pointing to broader weakness in the stock market. Recent pressure on spot ETF demand also shows that the market is reacting not only to macro data, but also to inflows into U.S. bitcoin funds.
Why This Matters
For European crypto investors, this matters mainly because Bitcoin is increasingly moving in step with expectations around U.S. rates and inflation. If the Fed stays tight for longer, that could shape the tone in the crypto market, even if there is no direct price target attached to it yet. The mix of weaker stocks, a strong dollar, and uncertainty around the rate path remains important to watch.