Bitcoin Holds Near $65,000 as a Big Test Looms

Bitcoin is still hovering around $65,000 as traders watch the Fed, U.S. inflation, and spot Bitcoin ETF inflows. Ethereum, meanwhile, has climbed to its highest level in nearly two months.

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin held around $65,000 on Monday, about 4% higher than Friday, while Ethereum climbed to its highest level in nearly two months.
• Market strategists see $67,300 as Bitcoin's next major resistance level; above that, the consolidation since June could break.
• Nansen warns of a possible drop to $52,000 to $58,000 if macro data, ETF inflows, and buying power do not improve.

Bitcoin and the wider crypto market stayed relatively firm on Monday, even as AI-related tech stocks came under heavy pressure. BTC was trading near $65,000 (€57,100), roughly 4% above Friday's level, while Ethereum reached its highest price in almost two months. The big question now is whether that momentum can carry the market into another breakout, or whether prices first drift back toward the June lows.

The Market Is Still Stuck in a Tight Range

Market strategists say Bitcoin is still boxed into a narrow range that has been in place for weeks. Joel Kruger of LMAX Group said crypto's recent ability to hold up while traditional markets have been volatile is a constructive sign, since digital assets appear to be at least partly decoupling from classic risk assets.

Even so, the market still has work to do. Kruger sees $67,300 (€59,100) as Bitcoin's next major hurdle. In his view, only a move above that level would open the door to a real breakout from the consolidation that has capped the price since June. Ethereum is facing a similar test near $2,000 (€1,760).

Tom Lee, chairman of Bitmine and co-founder of Fundstrat, also highlighted ETH's recent strength relative to BTC. On Monday, the ETH-BTC ratio hit a three-month high, which he views as a positive signal for the broader crypto market.

Macro Could Set the Tone

The next few days could still decide the direction, though. The Federal Reserve is due to announce its interest rate decision this week, and that will be followed by major U.S. inflation data, GDP figures, and quarterly results from big tech names including Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon. Friday will also bring a bitcoin and ether options expiry worth about $13 billion (€11.4 billion) to $14 billion (€12.3 billion).

That lines up with what is happening in derivatives markets, where Bitcoin options traders are cutting hedges as investors position for the Fed decision. With less downside protection in place, traders seem to be bracing for a quieter week rather than a sharp move.

Nicolai Sondergaard, senior research analyst at Nansen, remains more cautious. He said the recent rebound still lacks the kind of buying pressure that usually supports a durable rally. His base case is still a move back toward $52,000 (€45,700) to $58,000 (€50,900) if market conditions do not improve.

That warning also fits the chart setup. Bitcoin has previously run into resistance near $70,000 (€61,500), and after that it slipped back into the $65,000 (€57,100) to $66,000 (€58,000) range. If that zone breaks lower, traders are likely to focus on $62,000 (€54,400) and $60,000 (€52,700) as key support levels.

What Nansen Wants to See

For the picture to turn more constructive, Sondergaard is mainly watching three things: stronger stablecoin inflows to exchanges, continued spot Bitcoin ETF buying, and signs that long-term holders are no longer selling at a loss. Until those conditions show up, Nansen sees the current move as more of a positioning bounce than the start of a broader uptrend.

For European crypto readers, that matters because this week's market action is being driven by more than just Bitcoin's own price. Macro data and institutional flows are both in play, and together they may show whether crypto's recent stability is the start of something bigger or just a short-lived bounce in a fragile risk environment.