Bitcoin MACD Turns Red as $60,000 Comes Into View
Bitcoin's weekly chart is flashing another bearish MACD signal, while the price hovers around the 200-week moving average. Analysts see $60,000 as the next key level to watch.
Key Takeaways
- The MACD histogram on Bitcoin's weekly chart has slipped below zero, pointing to fading upside momentum.
- If this bearish signal holds through the weekly close on Sunday, Bitcoin could keep falling toward $60,000.
- Historical data shows that a bearish MACD was often followed by sharp corrections, although the outcome was not always the same.
Bitcoin is getting another bearish signal from technical analysis. The MACD histogram on the weekly chart has dropped below zero. If that holds through Sunday’s weekly close, analysts say it could point to a further decline. That also brings a move back below $60,000 (€54,100) into view, a level not seen since July.
MACD Turns Again
The MACD, or Moving Average Convergence Divergence, shows how a price trend and its momentum relate to each other. A negative turn in the histogram is often seen as a sign that upside momentum is fading. In this case, market watchers are mainly focused on the weekly chart, because confirmation there carries more weight than a short move on the daily chart.
According to Josh Taylor, founder and lead contributor at analytics firm 7th Key Financial, the technical signals are clearly red. On X, several analysts also pointed to the same pattern, warning that a quick bottom is not guaranteed. Bitcoin's price is also moving around its 200-week moving average, a zone that gets extra attention from technical traders.
History Points to a Bigger Drop
The concern is not coming out of nowhere. Since November 2012, this indicator has turned bearish 24 times, and in 13 cases Bitcoin then fell at least 16% from the moment the signal was confirmed. In earlier periods, that sometimes happened fast: five times, that drop was reached within a week, and ten times within four weeks.
History also shows that the outcome is not always the same. In June, a similar signal was followed by only a 3% drop to $57,700 (€52,100), after which the price recovered. But there were also heavier corrections, such as in November 2018 and February 2014, when Bitcoin lost 38% and 35% in a single week, respectively. The steepest drops came in August 2014 and April 2022, when the coin lost more than half its value.
Why This Matters Now
For European crypto followers, this is especially relevant because the signal lines up with broader pressure on risk assets. The dollar is strong, and that can make conditions tougher for crypto. On top of that, institutional players are pulling back from spot ETFs, according to the market context provided, which adds even more attention to Bitcoin.
The broader market backdrop also remains fragile: ETF outflows and weakness in tech had already pushed Bitcoin lower in a risk-off environment.