Bitcoin Puts Take the Lead on Deribit as August Nears
On Deribit, positioning has shifted from calls to the $60,000 put after $10 billion in BTC and ether options settled. Bitcoin’s weak August seasonality is also weighing on sentiment.
Key Takeaways
- On Deribit, the $60,000 Bitcoin put is now the most popular position, with $1.17 billion in notional open interest.
- The $70,000 and $72,000 calls were the most popular before, but their open interest dropped sharply after Friday's expiration.
- July has historically delivered a positive Bitcoin return, while August often comes in weaker, which is weighing on sentiment in the derivatives market.
The Bitcoin options market is ending July with a noticeable change in tone. On Deribit, the $60,000 (€52,300) put has become the most popular position, with $1.17 billion in notional open interest. In other words, traders are leaning more toward downside protection again, even after Bitcoin climbed back above $63,000 (€54,900) earlier this month.
From Calls to Puts
Just a day earlier, the most crowded trades were the bullish $70,000 (€61,000) and $72,000 (€62,700) calls, each carrying $2.5 billion (€2.2 billion) in notional open interest. Those positions had built up ahead of Wednesday's Fed meeting, as some traders were betting on a fast move higher after the U.S. central bank's rate decision.
That move never materialized. By Friday's 08:00 UTC expiration, $10 billion (€8.7 billion) in BTC and ether options had been settled, and open interest on the $70,000 (€61,000) call dropped to $943 million (€822 million), while the $72,000 (€62,700) call fell to $888 million (€774 million). Deribit is the world's largest crypto options exchange and accounts for a large share of Bitcoin and Ethereum options trading, so changes there often ripple quickly through the wider crypto market.
Seasonal Pattern Is Pressuring Sentiment
Seasonality is adding another layer of caution. Since 2013, July has produced a median return of 8.61%, and Bitcoin is up 8.9% so far this month. That looks solid on the surface, but history shows that a strong July is often followed by a weaker August, which has a median return of -7.51%.
Median returns matter because they are less skewed by extreme outliers than averages. In a market like Bitcoin, where a handful of unusually strong or weak months can distort the bigger picture, that gives traders a cleaner sense of the pattern they may be pricing in.
Why This Matters for Europe
For European crypto readers, the main takeaway is that derivatives sentiment can shift much faster than spot prices. If demand for puts on Deribit keeps building, it would point to growing caution among professional traders heading into August, even if it does not immediately tell us where Bitcoin goes next. The settlement of large BTC and ETH options also remains an important driver of liquidity and sentiment around the biggest cryptocurrencies.
