Bitcoin Rises 9% in July, but Volume Is Slipping

Bitcoin is posting gains in July, but spot volume, CME open interest, and inflows into U.S. spot ETFs are all declining. That points to a rally with little broad market support.

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin is up 9.3% in July and is trading around $64,058, but the rebound is coming with weak market activity.
• Spot volume, derivatives activity, and on-chain volumes are falling to multi-year or multi-month lows, which points to little conviction.
• Inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are cooling off and turned into outflows at the end of July, while August has historically been weak for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is heading for its first monthly gain since April in July, but the move higher has come with noticeably softer market activity. The price is up 9.3% this month, while spot volume is drifting toward multi-year lows and institutional demand is losing steam. In other words, the rally does not look especially well supported.

Volume Is Still Lagging

According to Coinglass, Bitcoin dropped 20.4% in June, its worst month since June 2022. Before that, the asset posted a relatively small 3.5% loss in May. July broke that streak after Bitcoin started the month near $58,000 (€51,000) on July 1 and has mostly climbed since then.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was changing hands around $64,058 (€56,300), up 0.58% over the past 24 hours. Even with that rebound, trading activity has not kept pace. K33 Research estimates average daily Bitcoin spot volume in July at about $2.2 billion (€1.9 billion), which would make it the weakest monthly average since November 2023.

Derivatives activity has also cooled. CME open interest is still near multi-year lows, and perpetual futures open interest has held around 300,000 BTC. The slowdown is even clearer on individual trading venues: Binance handled just over $35 billion (€30.8 billion) in July, down sharply from $246 billion (€216 billion) in November 2024.

On-Chain Data Shows Little Conviction

The slowdown is showing up not just in trading, but also in flows on the blockchain. Glassnode reports that spot volume measured in coins, which strips out price effects, is now at its lowest level since 2019. The firm says the decline in crypto spot volume has been building for months and is visible across the market.

The exchange side looks just as muted. Bitcoin inflows are running at about 60,000 BTC on a 30-day average, below last year’s levels and far under the highs seen in late 2024. Net flows between deposits and withdrawals are also nearly flat. That suggests there is no strong wave of selling, but also no meaningful pullback of coins that would tighten liquid supply.

Glassnode described the setup as more a sign of disinterest than of distribution or accumulation. For European crypto readers, that matters because quiet on-chain conditions like these often mean a price move is not yet being backed by broad real-market participation.

ETF Demand Is Cooling Off

The institutional side is telling the same story. Weekly inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs were still positive in early July, but they weakened each week after that and eventually turned negative. The week through July 10 brought in $197.4 million (€173 million), followed by $75.7 million (€66.5 million) and $33.8 million (€29.7 million). By the week through July 29, the funds saw a net outflow of $29.3 million (€25.7 million).

Those figures are small compared with the bigger bursts seen earlier, but they still point to a broader slowdown in institutional appetite. Since U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024, they have given professional investors a regulated way to gain exposure without holding Bitcoin directly, and they have played a major role in price discovery. If those inflows fade, it becomes harder for the price to keep advancing on its own.

Seasonality does not help the case either. Bitcoin has finished the last four Augusts in the red, with a median return of -7.49%. Whether July’s bounce lasts will likely depend on a fresh catalyst and a clear pickup in both spot and institutional demand.