Bitcoin Tests $68,000 as Summer Trading Dries Up

Bitfinex sees extra selling pressure around this level, since recent buyers are getting back to breakeven. Inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and CME futures also remain weak.

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin has recovered about 15% from the July low and is now moving toward resistance around $68,000.
• Bitfinex warns that many recent buyers could get back to breakeven around $68,000 and may start selling.
• Summer trading remains thin, with low institutional participation, weak volumes, and still-limited inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Bitcoin has pushed back above $66,000 (€57,800) after rebounding roughly 15% from its July low, and it is now nearing the $68,000 (€59,600) area that analysts say could be a major hurdle for the rally. Bitfinex says that level may also bring in fresh selling, since a lot of recent buyers would be back at breakeven there.

Important Resistance

In a Bitfinex market report, the firm said $68,000 (€59,600) sits close to the average entry price for investors who bought Bitcoin over the past five months. That makes the area especially important: traders who were underwater may be more willing to sell once their positions return to even. The same zone also matches the mid-June high, which came before the prior rally rolled over and Bitcoin slid to fresh cycle lows below $58,000 (€50,800).

That kind of overlap is common in crypto, where round numbers tend to attract a lot of attention. At those levels, stop-loss orders, take-profit orders, and limit orders often pile up, which can make support or resistance even stronger.

Demand Still Hasn't Recovered

Even with the market looking firmer, the analysts still describe the rebound as "fragile but constructive." The spot market has improved after U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs spent months mostly in outflow territory, but the report says inflows are still far below the pace seen earlier this year. Buying from corporate treasury firms like Strategy is also still well below the levels seen in the first months of 2026.

Bitfinex also points out that Bitcoin now accounts for nearly 67% of spot crypto volume, up from about 50% a year ago. That shift suggests traders are still favoring Bitcoin over smaller tokens, which is usually a sign of a more defensive market.

The latest bounce also fits the idea that the market may be stabilizing after a sharp sell-off. Fink Says Crypto Sell-Off Is Over, Bitcoin Finds Support already noted that ETF flows turned more positive after leverage was cleared out of the market.

Summer Trading Remains Thin

K33 Research sees a similar setup: the market is recovering, but conviction is still lacking. Head researcher Vetle Lunde said institutional activity has fallen further, with CME Bitcoin futures open interest now at its lowest point since 2023. Position growth in offshore perpetual futures also remained mostly flat, suggesting speculative traders are not adding much leverage.

Trading volumes are still soft as well. Bitcoin's 30-day volume is running at 62% of the yearly average, and average spot turnover over the past week was about $2.3 billion (€2 billion), close to the lowest level of the year. K33 describes the current backdrop as a "promising, and typical, summer slumber," with ETF flows having steadied after heavy outflows in May and June, but buyers still not returning in force.