Bitwise Sees Bitcoin Reaching $1.3 Million on Institutional Inflows
Bitwise says rising demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs and major firms like Morgan Stanley could help push BTC toward $1.3 million over the long run, according to CIO Matt Hougan.
Key Takeaways
- Bitwise expects Bitcoin to become a much larger institutional holding over the next 10 years, with money first coming from asset managers and family offices, then later from pension funds and sovereign wealth funds.
- Matt Hougan says his $1.3 million per BTC target for 2035 is based on the growth of the store-of-value market and Bitcoin’s potential share of that market.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs have made it easier for professional investors to get exposure and could keep tightening Bitcoin’s circulating supply as institutional demand rises.
Bitcoin could turn into a far bigger institutional asset over the next decade, according to Bitwise, as asset managers, family offices, and eventually pension funds and sovereign wealth funds increasingly treat BTC as a mainstream investment. Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan told CoinDesk that the trend is already visible in 13F filings tied to spot Bitcoin ETFs, along with moves from large firms like Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo to make Bitcoin easier for clients to access.
Institutions Are Taking the Lead
Hougan says the first wave of buying is likely to come from financial advisers and family offices. From there, he expects even larger pools of capital to step in, including foundations, endowments, insurers, sovereign wealth funds, and eventually central banks. He notes that this could take more than 10 years, but argues that the scale of those capital pools is exactly what makes the trend important over the long run.
He estimates that institutions around the world manage between $100 trillion (€86.7 trillion) and $200 trillion (€173 trillion) in assets. In his view, Bitcoin would only need a 1 percent allocation from that pool to support his long-term thesis. That would place Bitcoin alongside other major assets that gradually earn a permanent place in portfolios.
Why $1.3 Million (€1.1 Million) Is Possible
The Bitwise executive connects his $1.3 million (€1.1 million) BTC target for 2035 to the growth of the store-of-value market. He points to gold, whose market value has climbed from about $2 trillion (€1.7 trillion) when gold ETFs launched in 2004 to roughly $30 trillion (€26 trillion) today. If that market keeps expanding at 13 percent a year for another 10 years and Bitcoin eventually captures a quarter of it, his model puts BTC at $1.3 million (€1.1 million) per coin.
Hougan also argues that retail investors have already done much of the heavy lifting in crypto, but the next leg higher will need institutional money. In his view, institutions control the largest pools of capital in the world, while crypto has grown from $0 to $2 trillion (€1.7 trillion) mostly on retail demand. For the next move toward $20 trillion (€17.3 trillion), he says institutional inflows will have to lead the way.
What This Means for the Market
For European crypto readers, the main point is that Bitcoin is becoming more closely tied to traditional finance. Since spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved in January 2024, access for professional investors has improved significantly, and by mid-2026 those products were already managing more than $100 billion (€86.7 billion) in assets. That suggests Bitcoin is increasingly being treated not just as a speculative trade, but as part of broader portfolio construction.
That institutional demand could also put more pressure on available supply. Recent market estimates suggest professional investors now hold millions of BTC, which may further reduce the amount circulating in the market. At the same time, Hougan says Strategy, long one of the biggest Bitcoin buyers, no longer plays the same dominant role now that spot ETFs offer a direct alternative and the company has less flexibility to keep raising capital. That matches the shift outlined in Hougan: End of MicroStrategy as Biggest Bitcoin Buyer.
