Clarity Act Gains More Support on Prediction Markets
On Kalshi and Polymarket, the odds of approval are rising, but the Clarity Act still has to get through the Senate, the House, and the White House. The bill is meant to clarify the roles of the CFTC and SEC in the U.S.
Key Takeaways
- Prediction market traders raised their estimate of the Clarity Act's chances of approval on Monday on Kalshi and Polymarket.
- The jump follows a key procedural Senate vote, which needs support from 60 senators.
- After the Senate, the bill still has to pass the House of Representatives and the president, while analysts still see plenty of political uncertainty.
Prediction market traders became much more optimistic on Monday about the odds that Washington will finally get a crypto market structure bill through Congress. On Kalshi and Polymarket, the chances for the Clarity Act climbed to their highest level in weeks, but the bill still has to go through several political steps before it can actually be approved.
Odds Rise Fast
On Polymarket, the chance that the Clarity Act will be signed into law this year rose to nearly 30%, up from 12% earlier in September. That is the highest level since early August, according to the platform's event contract dashboard.
On Kalshi, the market for whether the crypto market structure bill becomes law before October 1, 2027, jumped overnight to 64% from 26% on Thursday. By Monday morning, that had slipped back to about 53%. For approval before July 1, the odds stood at 53%, compared with 30% on Thursday. The chance that the bill becomes law before April was last at 45%, about double the 23% on Thursday.
The Senate Remains the Test
The rising odds line up with a key procedural vote in the Senate on Tuesday. That vote needs support from 60 senators, which means the bill has to attract bipartisan backing. If that threshold is reached, it would be an important political step, but not final approval in the Senate yet.
After that, the amendment process could still take a long time. Any changes would also still have to go through the House of Representatives before the bill can reach the president. The crowded congressional calendar adds even more uncertainty.
According to TD Cowen analyst Jaret Sieberg, it is still far from certain that Democrats see enough in the text to get on board. He stuck with a 25% chance of the Clarity Act passing on Monday. In his note, he wrote that Republicans' revised ethics language may not go far enough for moderate Democrats.
Why This Matters for Crypto
The Clarity Act is meant to create a federal framework for crypto in the U.S., with a clearer division of responsibilities between the CFTC and the SEC. That could matter for the broader crypto market, since uncertainty around regulation has already played a role for years in debates over tokens, investment products, and DeFi. The outcome could also shape how strict or fragmented U.S. rules become in the near future.
Sieberg also pointed out that the debate over DeFi remains sensitive. Recent versions of the proposal would bring platforms with centralized control under CFTC registration, raising questions about the future of decentralized protocols. On top of that, the run-up to the midterms could further shape political priorities, making the bill even harder to move forward.
Earlier this week, the ethics clause in the Clarity Act already caused extra tension in Washington, because it is still one of the biggest sticking points in the Senate.
