Former Meta and Google Engineer Warns of Two Bitcoin Risks
Shyu says shrinking miner rewards and the possible impact of quantum computing could both challenge Bitcoin’s security. He also points to proposals like BIP-361 for post-quantum cryptography.
Key Takeaways
- Patrick Shyu says Bitcoin faces two major risks, in his view: shrinking miner rewards and the rise of quantum computing.
- According to Shyu, the fee economy is not keeping up as the block subsidy keeps falling; the next halving is expected in 2028.
- He says he is surprised there is still no clear plan for moving to post-quantum cryptography.
Patrick Shyu, a former Meta and Google engineer, says Bitcoin is facing two risks that won’t just disappear over time: weaker incentives for miners and the long-term threat of quantum computing. He also said he sold all of his Bitcoin after taking major losses, which adds a personal layer to his warning.
Miner Rewards Are Under Pressure
Shyu’s first concern is Bitcoin’s security economics. The network depends on both block rewards and transaction fees, but that mix is changing quickly as new coin issuance keeps shrinking. The block subsidy has already dropped to 3.125 BTC per block, and the next halving is expected in 2028.
In Shyu’s view, the issue is that fee revenue still is not strong enough to replace the falling block reward. He noted that 95% of all Bitcoin has already been mined and that fees have not fully filled the gap left by lower issuance. That raises a basic question about how secure the network can remain if miner income keeps sliding.
He says the market is already reflecting that pressure. Hashprice, a measure of mining revenue per unit of computing power, was around $30 (€26) per PH/s this month, after dropping 18% at the end of June.
Quantum Computing as the Second Threat
The second risk Shyu highlights is quantum computing. In theory, a sufficiently advanced quantum computer could use Shor’s algorithm to recover private keys from public keys that are visible onchain, which would leave older addresses exposed. That would hit the cryptography Bitcoin wallets depend on, and by extension the network’s security model.
No one agrees on when that could become a real problem. Some estimates place a possible Q-Day around 2035, while other research brings that timeline closer to 2030. Meanwhile, developers and researchers are working on post-quantum solutions, since the Bitcoin community knows any move to new cryptography would take time.
Shyu said he is surprised there still is no clear roadmap for that transition. He pointed to how difficult a network-wide upgrade would be, even though proposals are already being discussed, including BIP-361 and quantum-safe transactions built on existing rules.
Why This Matters
For European crypto readers, this is about more than a technical debate. It raises a bigger question about how long Bitcoin’s security model can hold up as miner rewards shrink and post-quantum cryptography becomes a more serious topic. For investors and infrastructure providers, that matters because it shows Bitcoin carries not only market risk, but protocol risk as well, and some of that only becomes obvious over the long run.
Bitcoin mining is already feeling the strain from the network’s weaker economics. In a recent article about Bitcoin mining becoming more sensitive to price swings because of breakeven levels, it was noted that many miners are operating closer to their cost basis, leaving the sector more exposed to further declines in hashprice and block rewards.
