Fidelity Says Bitcoin Holders Are HODLing in Droves

Fidelity says nearly 15 million BTC are now held by long-term holders, a record that suggests strong conviction despite the sharp pullback. Onchain signals are also nearing levels that have previously lined up with cycle bottoms.

Key Takeaways

• Fidelity says nearly 15 million Bitcoin are now held by investors who have not moved their coins for at least 155 days, a record high.
• The firm says onchain signals are approaching historical lows, while nearly 40 percent of this group is currently sitting on unrealized losses.
• Bitcoin is still trading about 50 percent below its October 2025 peak, and Fidelity says August could bring another market test.

Fidelity Digital Assets says long-term holders now control a record amount of Bitcoin, while several onchain indicators are, in the firm’s view, drifting closer to the levels that have marked past cycle bottoms. The asset manager says that points to strong conviction among investors, even with Bitcoin still trading far below its October 2025 peak.

Record Among Long-Term Holders

Fidelity says the amount of Bitcoin that has not moved for at least 155 days is now approaching 15 million coins. Research analyst Zack Wainwright describes that cohort as one of the clearest measures of investor confidence. The firm says this supply reached a record on July 5, 2026, even as prices remained under pressure.

The backdrop matters. In previous cycles, this group tended to expand during bear markets and contract during bull runs. Fidelity also notes that nearly 40 percent of these holders are now underwater on paper, but most are still holding on to their coins.

Signals Around the Cycle

Wainwright says a basket of onchain metrics is getting close to levels that have historically lined up with market bottoms. Still, he is not calling a turning point just yet, and says it remains to be seen whether these signals will work the same way this time.

That caution matches the broader market setup. Bitcoin is still trading about 50 percent below the peak above $126,000 (€110,800) reached in October 2025. In earlier bear markets, drawdowns reached 70, 80, and even 90 percent, which is why Fidelity views the current decline as milder than what the market has seen before.

Benjamin Cowen, a member of BeInCrypto's Market Intelligence experts council, also sees the fourth quarter as a possible bottom zone, with a scenario around $44,000 (€38,700). For now, though, that remains a base case rather than a certainty.

Why This Matters

For European crypto readers, the takeaway is simple: long-term holders are often one of the best windows into the market’s underlying strength. When a large share of supply stays dormant, it can signal that selling pressure is easing, even if it does not tell us exactly when the trend will reverse.

August could offer another check on that thesis. Fidelity notes that in all three previous midterm election years, the month ended lower, with losses between 15 and 18 percent. That makes the next few weeks an important test for whether Bitcoin is truly working its way toward a bottom.