IBM Puts Quantum Computing on the Clock as Bitcoin Security Debate Heats Up

IBM says quantum computing could start affecting revenue and profit as early as 2028 or 2029, while Bitcoin developers and firms like Coinbase and Galaxy Digital prepare for post-quantum security.

Key Takeaways

• IBM CEO Arvind Krishna expects quantum computing to make a visible contribution to revenue and profit in 2028 or 2029.
• Bitcoin uses elliptic curve cryptography, which could, in theory, become vulnerable to powerful quantum computers.
• According to BIP-361, more than 34 percent of Bitcoin's supply sits in addresses whose public keys have already been revealed.

IBM CEO Arvind Krishna says quantum computing could start showing up in the company’s revenue and profit as soon as 2028 or 2029. He also said the market could reach $1 trillion (€0.9 trillion) by the end of the 2030s. For Bitcoin investors, the bigger point is that this puts the quantum risk conversation on a shorter timeline, even as a large chunk of Bitcoin’s supply may still be exposed to future attacks.

IBM Gives Quantum a Timeline

Krishna said on CNBC on Thursday that quantum computing is likely to become a meaningful business driver for IBM within a few years, not just at some distant point down the road. On the same day, IBM and Algorithmiq announced what they called quantum advantage, meaning a quantum computer completed a specific simulation faster or more efficiently than classical methods.

For crypto, that is worth paying attention to because quantum hardware appears to be moving faster than many Bitcoin holders expected. It still cannot break encryption today, but that progress is exactly what security teams are tracking. It also raises a practical question for the industry: how do you get ready technically? A recent effort from major players is already focused on research into quantum-resistant defenses.

Why Bitcoin Is Exposed Here

Bitcoin depends on elliptic curve cryptography. In theory, if quantum computers become powerful enough, that system could be vulnerable to attacks using algorithms such as Shor's algorithm. In March, Google Quantum AI published an estimate that cut the number of qubits needed to break elliptic curve cryptography to below 500,000.

The BIP-361 proposal text says more than 34 percent of Bitcoin's supply is held in addresses where the public keys have already been exposed. That comes out to about 6.8 million BTC, worth roughly $437 billion (€381 billion) at the time of writing. Bitcoin still does not have a broadly accepted path to post-quantum cryptography, although developers are working on proposals like BIP-360 and BIP-361 remains under discussion.

Security Is Becoming More Urgent

For European crypto readers, the point is that quantum security is no longer just a theoretical issue. Major industry players are already starting to prepare: Galaxy Digital launched a Bitcoin Quantum Readiness Initiative earlier this month, and Coinbase created an Independent Advisory Board on Quantum Computing. Quantum-safe efforts are also expanding across the wider tech industry, which shows that post-quantum security is becoming a broader issue than Bitcoin alone.

That does not mean Bitcoin is about to face an attack tomorrow. But it does suggest that network security and protocol upgrades are being taken more seriously, especially as a commercial breakthrough in quantum computing looks closer than it did before.