Kalshi and Polymarket See First Volume Drop in a Year
After a summer spike driven by the World Cup, Kalshi and Polymarket’s combined volume slipped back in August. At the same time, lawsuits from U.S. states over sports contracts are piling up.
Key Takeaways
- Kalshi and Polymarket saw their combined trading volume fall in August for the first time in a year to $45.33 billion.
- Kalshi processed $37.17 billion, while Polymarket and its U.S. platform together came to $8.16 billion.
- U.S. regulators are putting pressure on both platforms, while Kalshi keeps expanding in sports with a deal around the U.S. Open.
Kalshi and Polymarket saw their combined trading volume fall in August for the first time in a year. According to data from The Block, the total came to $45.33 billion (€39.1 billion), 14.5% lower than in July, after a strong summer in which the World Cup boosted activity on prediction markets.
Kalshi Remains Far and Away the Biggest
Kalshi processed $37.17 billion (€32.1 billion) in August, down 7.3% from $40.1 billion (€34.6 billion) in July. Polymarket and its U.S. platform together came to $8.16 billion (€7 billion), down 36.7% from $12.89 billion (€11.1 billion) a month earlier.
Even with that pullback, total volume was still well above May, when the platforms together posted $25.66 billion (€22.1 billion). That shows how strong the summer months were, even though the August peak clearly cooled off after the surge around the World Cup, which ran from June 11 to July 19.
More Pressure From Regulators
At the same time, both platforms are facing more pressure from U.S. regulators. More than a dozen states have launched enforcement actions or filed lawsuits against Kalshi and Polymarket, especially over sports contracts.
Connecticut filed a case last week to block Kalshi from offering sports contracts. That fits into a broader legal fight that has been going on for months and shows that the prediction markets space in the U.S. is not only growing, but also getting a closer look. In Nevada, Kalshi previously faced an unfavorable ruling over sports contracts, which added to the legal uncertainty.
Sports Remain Important for Kalshi
Meanwhile, Kalshi is continuing to expand in sports. The company recently struck a deal with the U.S. Tennis Association, making it the exclusive prediction market partner of the U.S. Open, whose main draw began on August 30.
Kalshi also took a notable step this week by permanently banning former U.S. Congressman George Santos from the platform. He had broken the rules with a bet on whether he would attend the State of the Union and was also hit with a fine of more than $71,000 (€61,300).
