Meta Is Building a New Prediction App Called Arena Without Real Money
Meta is testing Arena as a prediction app that uses points instead of real money. The move follows its earlier experience with Forecast and fits into the growing prediction markets trend.
Key Takeaways
- Meta is building Arena, an app that lets users make predictions about future events.
- Arena will likely use a points system without real money, similar to a video game.
- Meta is trying prediction markets again after its earlier app Forecast was taken offline in 2022.
Meta, Facebook's parent company, is building a new app called Arena that will let users make predictions about future events. Unlike traditional prediction market platforms like Polymarket or Kalshi, Arena will likely use a points system that feels more like a video game instead of real-money betting. While the option of real-money betting has not been ruled out completely, the focus for now is on an experimental product that has a high priority inside Meta.
A New Try After Earlier Experience With Forecast
This development follows Meta's earlier attempt with Forecast, an app launched in 2020 to encourage users to make predictions about current events, especially during the early phase of the Covid-19 pandemic. Forecast was taken offline again in 2022, partly because of challenges with user engagement and possibly also because of concerns about regulation. The renewed interest in prediction markets fits into a broader trend, with more and more platforms tapping into the growing popularity of these kinds of markets.
Growth and Complexity of Prediction Markets
Prediction markets have become much more popular in recent years, especially after Polymarket's success during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, where billions of dollars in trading volume were generated. Alongside crypto-native companies like Coinbase and Kraken, traditional brokers like Robinhood also offer event contracts tied to political and economic outcomes. But this rapid growth has also brought more legal and regulatory attention. For example, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is wrestling with the question of whether certain event contracts should be treated as legitimate financial instruments or as banned gambling activity. There are also concerns about market manipulation, insider trading, and consumer protection. Kalshi, a leading platform in the U.S., has taken steps to block insiders like athletes and politicians from trading contracts directly tied to them. In the U.S., that legal pressure is growing even more, including through proposals to keep politicians out of these kinds of markets, as in U.S. Lawmakers Could Be Banned From Betting on Kalshi and Polymarket.
Why This Matters for European Users
Even though Arena is currently focused on a points system without real money, the development matters for European crypto users because it shows that big tech companies are interested in prediction markets. That could point to broader acceptance and integration of these markets into digital ecosystems, where European regulation and market trends will also play a role. The focus on regulation and consumer protection in the U.S. could also serve as a model for European policymakers and market participants.
