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On-chain analyst: 'Bitcoin could drop below $50,000 in bear market in 2026'

According to Joao Wedson, founder of analysis platform Alphractal, Bitcoin may be in the final phase of the current bull market.

By Luc Vesters
• 2 min read
On-chain analyst: 'Bitcoin could drop below $50,000 in bear market in 2026'

View post on X founder of analysis platform Alphractal, Bitcoin could be in the final phase of the current bull market. On X, he stated that BTC could rise in the coming weeks above $140,000, with the cycle peak expected in October. After that, according to him, the next bear market would start, with a possible bottom in 2026 under $50,000.

Yet this cycle differs fundamentally from previous ones. Wedson notes that the role of institutional investors, adoption by traditional financial institutions, and speculation around Bitcoin ETFs have changed the classic market cycle. “The question is whether this pattern is still reliable,” says the analyst.

Other experts are also questioning the traditional cycle. Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, even calls the theory “dead”: big players would no longer mainly buy during bear markets and sell during bull markets, but hold with a long-term strategy.

Rumors about the end of the four-year cycle have been circling for a while. The waning impact of Bitcoin halvings, combined with growing institutional demand and more favorable regulation, reinforce the belief that Bitcoin may be in a new paradigm. Whether the 2025 halving still plays a decisive role will become clearer in the coming months.

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