Samson Mow Says Bitcoin Bottom Is In, Analysts Split on What Comes Next
Mow points to an accelerated halving pattern, while technical signals and analyst price targets remain all over the map. Bitcoin spot ETFs are also making the market harder to read.
Key Takeaways
- Samson Mow says Bitcoin has already reached its bottom because of an accelerated halving cycle.
- Mow says Bitcoin set an all-time high 37 days before the April 2024 halving.
- Analysts are still divided, with bottom calls ranging from $55,000 to $40,000.
Samson Mow says Bitcoin has already put in its bottom, arguing that the usual four-year halving rhythm has sped up. His comments come at a time when analysts are still sharply divided on where the price could head next.
Accelerated Halving Cycle and Its Impact on Price
Mow, who is widely known for his $1 million (€0.9 million) Bitcoin forecast and his role in El Salvador's bitcoin efforts, pointed out that Bitcoin reached an all-time high 37 days before the April 2024 halving. He sees that as evidence that the traditional halving cycle is moving faster than it used to, with the timing of major market swings starting to shift. Since the halving cuts miner rewards in half, it has historically played a big role in Bitcoin's price moves, but Mow argues this cycle may be unfolding differently.
Analysts Split on the Bottom and Price Outlook
Not everyone shares Mow's more optimistic view. Some analysts still think Bitcoin has room to fall before a durable bottom forms. CoinDesk market analyst Omkar Godbole is watching a technical setup known as the "bear cross" between the 50-week and 100-week moving averages, a pattern that has often appeared near market lows. That may suggest a bottom is getting closer, but it does not confirm one yet.
Markus Thielen of 10x Research sees the bottom near $55,000 (€48,200) and says it may not arrive until sometime between August and October. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMex, is more cautious and expects a bottom around $40,000 (€35,100) within six months. James Van Straten of CoinDesk, meanwhile, is focused on the 200-week moving average as a key level. Bitcoin has not broken below it in this cycle, which he says leaves the door open for another drop of 15% or more.
Why This Matters for European Crypto Investors
For European investors, the shifting halving pattern and the wide spread in analyst forecasts point to a market that may be getting harder to predict. The arrival of Bitcoin spot ETFs in 2024 made it easier for institutions to get exposure, and that may be changing how the market behaves. The result could be less predictable price action than in earlier cycles, which is important for both portfolio decisions and risk management in Europe.
