What will matter for Bitcoin and crypto this week

Crypto investors should closely monitor the following relevant economic and financial data in the current trading week of July 12 to July 15.

Investors in the crypto world should keep a close eye on the following relevant economic and financial data in the current trading week of July 12 through July 15.

A surprisingly strong jobs report (NFP) last Friday gave the week a conciliatory end in the final trading week. The positive move in U.S. stock indices carried over to the crypto market. The Bitcoin price rose to $21,892. It then slipped to $20,400.

The upturn did not continue. Whether last week’s price gains were just a technical rebound and whether the financial markets will correct again this week, or whether we’ve already seen a bottom for now, will likely depend largely on fresh key economic data.

Economic Outlook: ZEW for the Eurozone

Today, July 12, the Mannheim Centre for European Economic Research will release the ZEW index for the eurozone’s economic expectations at 11:00 CET. The ZEW index is one of the most important leading indicators of economic development. It is based on monthly surveys of more than 350 institutional investors about their view of the current economic situation. For the eurozone, analysts expect a better reading of -28. In the previous month, the eurozone ZEW stood at -29.

A reading of 0 signals a positive development versus the prior month, while a drop below 0 indicates a negative trend. Current expert estimates point to a persistently weak eurozone economy. A stubbornly weak ZEW index could prompt the European Central Bank (ECB) to rethink planned rate hikes in the coming months.

Midweek CPI (Consumer Price Index)

Wednesday, July 13, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the June CPI at 2:30 p.m. ET. Market participants expect a year‑over‑year increase of 8.8 percentage points. In the prior month, the rise was 8.6%. If estimates are exceeded, pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed) to tighten further will rise. Fed Chair Jerome Powell would likely consider further rate hikes to curb inflation.

New Producer Prices and U.S. unemployment data

This Thursday, the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released at 2:30 p.m. CET. Forecasts call for a 0.8 percentage-point gain. The previous month saw a 0.8 point rise. The PPI tracks prices for goods and services produced and sold in the U.S. and serves as a gauge of inflationary pressure. A rising PPI points to higher inflation, which could strengthen the dollar against the euro. Also at 2:30 p.m. CET, the weekly initial jobless claims will be released. This week, 235,000 new claims are expected. Versus last week, analysts have nudged up expectations by 5,000 claims. If claims come in higher than expected, it signals growing economic weakness in the U.S. Ongoing negative trends could prompt the Fed to loosen fiscal policy.

U.S. retail sales at week’s end

On the last trading day, July 15, the Census Bureau will release June retail sales at 2:30 p.m. CET. These are seen as a key gauge of consumer spending. Retail sales in the U.S. recently came up short, posting a -0.3% miss versus market expectations. Despite a May dip, most traders still expect consumer spending to rise by 0.8 percentage points. A reading below that would indicate ongoing consumer caution.

At 4:00 p.m. CET, several Michigan sentiment figures will be released. Investors will pay special attention to U.S. consumer expectations, a proxy for household buying behavior. Analysts expect a reading of 47.0 for July, still near a 10-year low. The last time expectations were this low was in 2011. In the prior month, consumer expectations stood at 47.5. If the 47 forecast is missed, it could add pressure on the Fed. Prolonged weak consumer spending could push the Fed to provide more support to households.