What’s going to be big for Bitcoin and crypto this week?

Bitcoin keeps climbing: last week the top crypto decisively surpassed its old high and jumped to over $118,000.

Bitcoin keeps climbing: last week the top crypto decisively surpassed its old high and jumped to over $118,000. By week’s end BTC even touched $119,000, another all-time high. Altcoins also rode a spectacular rally.

But this week the euphoria could be tested temporarily. Key US economic reports could cool the crypto rally or spark a fresh leg up. Here’s a snapshot of the data investors will be watching this week.

Tuesday: US inflation data set the tone

On Tuesday, July 15 at 14:30 Central European Time, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the latest CPI numbers for June. The prior inflation print came in at 2.4% — just below expectations — but June is expected to show a touch higher at 2.6%.

A cooler print than that could reinforce a bullish narrative for Bitcoin by fueling expectations of two Fed rate cuts in 2025. But a hotter print would imply a stronger dollar, higher real yields, and pressure on risk assets like crypto.

To make matters more interesting, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will kick off earnings season on the same day, adding extra volatility to the market.

Wednesday: producer prices and big-bank results

On Wednesday, July 16 at 14:30, the PPI numbers (producer price index) will be released. They give insight into price pressure at the production level and can signal future consumer inflation. The prior PPI came in at 2.6%, in line with expectations.

A decline would ease the inflation picture and be favorable for Bitcoin and stocks. But a sharp rise could renew inflation concerns. Heavyweights like Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and BlackRock will report earnings, adding to market dynamics.

Thursday: European inflation, US retail and jobs data

Thursday, July 17 brings a flood of data. First up at 11:00 local time are European inflation numbers. The expected figure is 2.0% year over year. A softer print would spark speculation of additional monetary easing by the ECB, which would be crypto-friendly. A higher inflation print would point toward tighter policy.

At 14:30 the US retail sales report follows. After a surprising -0.9% drop in May, a small gain of 0.2% is expected. A rise would support the “soft landing” scenario — fewer cuts to rates. A new drop could spark recession fears and push investors toward safe havens like gold or Treasuries.

Weekly unemployment claims are released as well. Forecast: 234,000, up from 227,000 the prior week. A big uptick would suggest a weakening labor market, putting risk assets under pressure again.

After the bell, Netflix reports quarterly results, and in Friday’s pre-dawn hours chip giant TSMC is critical for tech sentiment.

Friday: consumer confidence and inflation expectations

Friday, July 18 wraps the week with data from the University of Michigan. They will release at 16:00 the consumer sentiment index and households’ inflation expectations.

The prior inflation expectation was 5.0% year over year, a touch below the forecast. A rise could push the Fed to a tougher stance, potentially bearish for Bitcoin. A decline would fuel optimism about future rate cuts.

Consumer confidence is estimated at 61.4. If the reality comes in higher, that’s positive for stocks and crypto. But a lower reading — especially with rising inflation expectations — could undermine risk-on sentiment.

Bottom line: macro, but hype still rules

Even with macro data in the spotlight this week, the impact of new US import tariffs on European goods will factor in. Still, as long as crypto momentum stays as strong as it is, macro headwinds can fade into the background.

Bitcoin remains the main player for now, but this week has plenty on the table that could change that."