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Will the Bitcoin rally stall at the end of January?

10x Research tempering expectations for the mid-term.

By Finst News
• 5 min read
Will the Bitcoin rally stall at the end of January?

10x research tempers expectations for the mid-term. This Monday, Bitcoin price for the first time in 2025 surpassed the $100,000 mark. According to a new report from 10x Research, the Bitcoin rally could continue until Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20. However, Markus Thielen cautions that the situation cannot be compared to the bullish periods from January to March or from late September to mid-December last year. Initially, Bitcoin's move ahead of the U.S. inflation data release on January 15 might be softer, then gain momentum again on positive results. But the biggest challenge could come at the end of the month.

The "dynamics can fade, and the market could cool somewhat ahead of the FOMC meeting on January 29," Thielen writes regarding the next gathering of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). This committee sets the monetary and interest-rate policy for the U.S. central bank. According to official surveys, 91 percent of surveyed market participants currently expect rates to remain unchanged between 4.25% and 4.50%. Many crypto investors, however, are hoping for looser monetary policy later in the year, as that would push safe U.S. Treasuries yields lower, while risky assets like Bitcoin become more attractive.

This indicator now points to Bitcoin

Nevertheless, Bitcoin dominance is projected by Thielen to remain a strong force for the leading cryptocurrency. "From January 2024 to mid-November, Bitcoin dominance rose from 50% to 60%, which led to significant headwinds for altcoin performance." After a brief period of weakness, it consolidated above 55% by mid-December. This underscores the ongoing dominance of Bitcoin as the main driver of the crypto market. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $101,760, a 10.8% rise versus the previous week. Bitcoin dominance is currently 56.1%.

Will the Bitcoin rally end-of-January stall?

Development of Bitcoin dominance since 2013 | Source: CoinMarketCap

Due to the uncertainty ahead of the U.S. rate announcement, the founder of 10x-Research predicts Bitcoin prices around $97,000 to $98,000 by the end of January. The scenario could dramatically change if the designated 47th president of the U.S. announces the creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve right after taking office. When asked about this, Jerome Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, dodged: "We may not own Bitcoin. The Federal Reserve Act specifies what we can own, and we aren’t pursuing a statutory change."

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