Bitcoin Back Above $77,500 as XRP Leads Majors
XRP rose nearly 3% and pulled the major tokens higher, while Bitcoin found support around the average cost basis of active investors. The market is now watching U.S. jobs and inflation data and the Fed's rate path.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin recovered on Thursday to just above $77,600, after earlier falling to $76,400.
- XRP rose nearly 3% to $1.36, while BNB, Solana, and Tron were also in the green and Ether stayed below $2,400.
- The market is looking ahead to U.S. labor data, inflation, and the Fed meeting, while rates and bonds are shaping crypto sentiment.
Bitcoin returned on Thursday during the Asian morning to just above $77,600 (€67,000), after the price had still slipped to $76,400 (€66,000) in late U.S. trading hours. XRP drew the most attention among the major tokens with a gain of nearly 3% to $1.36 (€1.17), while BNB, Solana, and Tron also posted gains. Ether lagged behind and sat just below $2,400 (€2,070).
Bitcoin Holds $76,350 (€65,900)
According to Bitfinex, the average cost basis of active investors on the network was around $76,350 (€65,900). Bitcoin came close to that level on Tuesday night and Wednesday night, but buyers stepped in before that zone was actually broken. The analysts also pointed out that investors who bought in February and March seem to be selling mostly around their entry level this week instead of at a loss.
On a weekly basis, the picture remains mixed. Ether is down almost 4% from seven days ago, Tron about 3%, XRP around 3%, and Bitcoin about 1%. Only Zcash and HYPE are still holding on to weekly gains among the bigger names mentioned in this overview.
Fed and Bonds Move Along Too
The move came at a time when the U.S. rates and bond market was heading the other way. New U.S. attacks near the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices higher and brought the inflation narrative back into focus. The 10-year yield rose to just above 4.8%, while the dollar index stayed close to 100.
That macro pressure is especially relevant for Bitcoin because the coin often moves sharply with the 10-year yield. Historically, that link is clearly visible, and September is also known as a weak month for Bitcoin. Bitfinex cited an average return of minus 2.95% since 2013, while broader historical data points to average losses of about 6% in September.
Payrolls Could Set the Tone
For European crypto followers, the upcoming U.S. labor data series is especially important. The market is watching Friday's jobs report, after which the inflation figures on September 11 and the Fed meeting on September 16 could give more direction to rate expectations. According to CME FedWatch, the odds of a quarter-point rate hike are now above 62%, lower than a day earlier and clearly higher than a week ago.
That makes the next few days important for sentiment around Bitcoin and the major altcoins. The options market is already pricing in volatility between about $68,000 (€58,700) and $75,000 (€64,800) heading into the data, but the direction after that still depends on the macro data and the Fed's rate path.
Bitcoin is also keeping an eye on broader macro pressure: in an earlier market update, it was already described how oil and the stronger dollar were putting pressure on the price around $76,000 (€65,600).
