Bitcoin Closes September Higher, But October Starts With Less Demand
Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost momentum at the start of October, while long-term holders took more profits and a strong sell wall sits around $85,000.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin ended September with a 6.33% gain, even though that month is historically often weak for crypto.
- At the start of October, buying power faded: spot Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows and visible spot demand fell, according to CryptoQuant.
- Around $84,198, there is a sell wall between $85,000 and $85,500, while support is seen around $80,000 and $77,200.
Bitcoin ended September with a 6.33% gain, even though that month is historically often weak for the crypto market. Still, October is starting with less buying power than at the end of September. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw their inflow streak end, long-term holders sold more, and a clear sell wall is sitting above the current price.
September Broke the Pattern
Since 2013, September has delivered an average loss for Bitcoin, but the coin now closed the month higher for the fourth year in a row. That fits into a trend that gets extra attention from many traders, because October is historically often stronger. Since 2013, Bitcoin has posted a strong average gain in October, and the month has long been known in the market as "Uptober."
Bitcoin also did better in September than gold and the S&P 500. According to Santiment, gold fell more than 6% that month, while the S&P 500 slipped slightly. CryptoQuant sees the recent rise as a possible confirmation of a new bull market, after Bitcoin closed above the 365-day average last week.
ETF Inflows Slowed Down
The demand that supported the rally clearly weakened at the start of October. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in nearly $999 million (€880 million) on September 21, their strongest day in almost a year. After that, inflows quickly cooled off, and on September 30 the funds posted a net outflow of $148.69 million (€131 million). None of the 12 ETFs saw an inflow that day.
That lined up with weaker signals in broader demand. CryptoQuant estimates that visible spot demand shrank by 170,000 BTC over 30 days. Futures demand growth also slowed. Glassnode also sees combined spot and ETF volume at around $6.4 billion (€5.6 billion) per day, near the lower end of the range since the funds launched.
Bitcoin Is Eyeing $85,000 (€74,900)
Around the current price of $84,198 (€74,200), Glassnode sees a large wall of sell orders between $85,000 (€74,900) and $85,500 (€75,300) on Binance. That wall appeared on September 24 and has since grown three times larger. On the downside, CryptoQuant sees the first support around $80,000 (€70,500), at the 365-day average. Below that, Glassnode puts the True Market Mean at around $77,200 (€68,000).
Existing holders also took more profits. On September 22, 25,700 BTC in realized profits were reported, the biggest day of 2026 so far. Glassnode also saw long-term holders take a larger share of those profits. For European crypto followers, that matters because it shows the market does not just depend on new inflows, but also on how willing existing investors are to keep holding as the price keeps rising. That ties into the broader discussion about profit-taking by Bitcoin holders, where realized profits are still below earlier market peaks.
