Bitcoin Holds Above $77,000 as Glassnode Sees $96,700 as the Next Test
Glassnode sees the $95,000-$97,000 zone as the next hurdle, while U.S. spot ETFs are seeing inflows again and Deribit gamma could steer the price.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin is trading above the True Market Mean of about $77,000 and has not closed a single day below the realized price in this cycle.
- Glassnode sees the next major test between $95,000 and $97,000, where options positions and the average MVRV price come together.
- Spot ETFs pulled in about $1.3 billion over five trading days, while 24-hour spot volume has more than doubled since August.
Bitcoin remains notably firm above the realized price in this bear phase and is now trading above the True Market Mean of about $77,000 (€67,500). According to Glassnode, the next major test sits between $95,000 (€83,300) and $97,000 (€85,100), where options positions and the average MVRV price come together. The question is whether the recovering inflows into spot ETFs and higher spot volume are strong enough to break through that zone.
Bear Phase Without a Daily Close Below Price
Glassnode says Bitcoin has not closed a single day below the realized price in this cycle. That is different from the bear markets of 2018-2019 and 2022-2023, when the price stayed below it for months. Even the June bottom stayed above that line, something that had not been seen in a bear phase since 2017.
The position of short-term holders also looks less weak than in earlier drops. Bitcoin is above their cost basis, and the NUPL indicator stayed positive in this cycle. In 2018 and 2022, that same measure fell deep into the red, which at the time pointed to much heavier paper losses.
Inflows and Volume Pick Up
The recent rebound came with more activity in the market. 24-hour spot volume has more than doubled since August's low, a rise of about 121 percent. Still, the seven-day average is still about 30 percent below the level from a year ago.
According to Glassnode, U.S. spot ETFs picked up again after two weeks of outflows. Over five trading days, about $1.3 billion (€1.1 billion) came in net, with the strongest inflow day since early July. That fits a broader shift in 2026, where spot ETFs have become a more important channel for institutional capital than new mining supply.
Why $84,000 Matters
The main supply zone for long-term holders sits between $84,000 (€73,700) and $85,000 (€74,500), just below the current price. Above that, the average MVRV price of about $96,700 (€84,800) is the next big test. Glassnode calculates that price based on the realized price and Bitcoin's historically average MVRV ratio.
Options data on Deribit point in the same direction. Around $95,000 (€83,300), market makers built up strongly positive gamma in a single day, while negative gamma formed between the current price and $92,000 (€80,700). That can either amplify the move or slow it down, depending on which way the price goes.
For European crypto followers, this is especially relevant because Bitcoin is once again showing how strongly on-chain data, ETF flows, and derivatives can interact. The mix of limited profit-taking and recovering inflows points to less selling pressure than in earlier bear phases, but it does not yet confirm a new bull market.
