Finst

Bitcoin Lags Behind Record Global Liquidity: Can It Close the Gap?

Bitcoin is still lagging badly even as global liquidity hits record highs. Analysts are wondering whether the coin can still close the gap.

By Mike Hesp
• 2 min read
Bitcoin Lags Behind Record Global Liquidity: Can It Close the Gap?

Key Takeaways

  • Bitcoin is trading about 48% below its October peak, while the global M2 money supply reached nearly $135 trillion.
  • Analysts see a big divergence between Bitcoin and liquidity; the market could close the gap later or react in a more structural way.
  • Bitcoin moved up toward $66,000, but lower volumes, futures open interest, and ETF trading point to cautious base building.

Bitcoin is currently trading about 48% below its October peak, while the global money supply is hitting a record high. This gap between Bitcoin and global liquidity is the most pronounced in years and is drawing attention from market analysts who see liquidity as a key signal for risk assets.

Divergence Between Bitcoin and Global Liquidity

The global M2 money supply, a common measure of global liquidity, recently reached nearly $135 trillion (€116 trillion). While the S&P 500 has been tracking that expansion and is trading close to its own record high, Bitcoin has been moving in a very different direction since the start of 2025. As the money supply keeps rising and the stock market recovers, Bitcoin is lagging and consolidating at lower levels.

This setup can be read in two ways. The first is that Bitcoin will eventually close the gap through price gains, as has often happened in the past after periods of divergence. The second is that there may be a structural shift in the relationship between Bitcoin and global liquidity, possibly because of changes in investor mix or macroeconomic factors.

Early Signs of Recovery

This week, Bitcoin moved up toward $66,000 (€56,900), helped in part by positive developments like the US-Iran agreement that supports risk assets. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $65,831 (€56,700), up 0.27% from the previous day. While that could be a sign of stabilization, on-chain data points to cautious base building rather than a strong trend reversal.

For example, spot volume dropped 40.4% and futures open interest fell 3%, suggesting the recent move is mostly being driven by position closing instead of fresh buying interest. Long-side funding payments and the trading volume of Bitcoin ETFs also dropped sharply. That suggests the market is lighter right now, but not necessarily healthier.

The weaker ETF flows fit the picture of fading institutional demand; Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows on Monday while altcoin ETFs saw inflows, showing that capital can also rotate away from bitcoin for a while.

Why This Matters for European Crypto Investors

For European investors, this setup matters because it shows how macroeconomic factors and global liquidity can affect Bitcoin's price action. The current divergence could point to a temporary dislocation or a possible shift in market behavior, which matters for risk management and strategic decisions in the European crypto market. The next few weeks will be crucial in showing whether Bitcoin can close the gap with global liquidity or whether the relationship has changed for good.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. The information provided may be incomplete, inaccurate, or outdated and should not be relied upon as such. Nothing on this website should be considered a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any cryptocurrency. Investing in crypto-assets involves risk of loss.