Bitcoin MVRV Crossover Points to Early Momentum
Glassnode sees the MVRV ratio back above the 365-day average, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are pulling in heavy inflows. At the same time, RSI points to strong momentum and the chance of a short breather.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin traded around $85,873 after the MVRV ratio moved back above its 365-day moving average.
- Glassnode said earlier crossovers of this MVRV line came before the early uptrends in 2019 and 2023.
- The 14-day RSI stood at 73.62, while spot Bitcoin ETFs showed strong inflows and large whale transactions.
Bitcoin traded around $85,873 (€75,300) after Glassnode reported that the MVRV ratio had moved back above its 365-day moving average. That crossover previously came before the early stages of the uptrends in 2019 and 2023. At the same time, the 14-day RSI is at 73.62, which shows that momentum is strong, but also that the chance of a short breather is rising.
MVRV Gives a Cycle Picture
The MVRV ratio compares Bitcoin’s market value with its realized value, or the combined cost basis of all coins on the network. That makes the metric a way to gauge the average profit or loss holders have not yet locked in. Historically, the ratio has often been used to spot phases in the Bitcoin cycle, with high readings more often lining up with tops and low readings with bottoms.
Glassnode pointed out that the current level is still well below the extreme readings that usually fit market euphoria. In earlier cycles, the peaks were also lower than in 2013, when MVRV reached around 5.0, or in 2017 and 2021, when the peaks were around 4.2 and 3.9, respectively. That fits the view that the Bitcoin market has matured over the years.
ETF Demand and Whales Stay Active
Beyond the on-chain data, capital flows also point to continued interest. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of about $999 million (€876 million) on September 21, followed by another $714.7 million (€627 million) a day later. BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC were the biggest drivers.
On the same day, the network logged more than 2,722 transactions above $1 million (€0.9 million), according to data highlighted by crypto analyst Ali Martinez. That points to ongoing activity from large players, while Bitcoin is also staying above the 50-day average of $73,689 (€64,600) and the 200-day average of $70,614 (€61,900).
For anyone trying to read the broader market: Glassnode had already seen Bitcoin trading above its realized price, with key resistance around $95,000 (€83,300) to $97,000 (€85,100). That mix of ETF inflows and stronger spot activity also helped support the rebound then.
What This Means for Investors
For European crypto followers, this is especially relevant because several signals are pointing in the same direction at once: a recovered valuation metric, solid ETF demand, and a price that is holding key moving averages. That could mean market sentiment has improved, without yet confirming a new phase of euphoria.
The high RSI does come with a warning. Strong momentum can go hand in hand with a temporary pullback or a short stretch where the price mostly moves sideways. So the current data support the positive picture, but not a sure breakout in the near term.
