Bitcoin Nears Bear Market Bottom, On-Chain Signals Suggest
Glassnode sees the Puell Multiple moving toward the bottom zone, while long-term holders are sitting on record amounts of BTC. That points to accumulation, but not yet to a clear capitulation.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin is trading around $62,600, about 50% below the October 2025 all-time high.
- The Puell Multiple is just above 0,5 and moving toward a historically important bottom zone, without breaking through it convincingly yet.
- Long-term holder supply hit a record 16,75 million BTC on July 11, which points to accumulation by long-term holders.
Bitcoin is trading around $62,600 (€54,900), leaving it roughly 50% below its October 2025 all-time high. Two on-chain indicators now point to a bear market bottom that may be getting closer, although neither one says the low is already in.
Puell Multiple Moves Toward Bottom Zone
The Puell Multiple measures the daily dollar value of newly issued Bitcoin against the 365-day average of that same miner revenue. Developed by analyst David Puell, the indicator has often marked major turning points in the market. Readings below 0,5 have lined up with several cycle bottoms, while readings above 4 have tended to show up near market tops.
Glassnode data shows Bitcoin has spent five extended periods in that bottom zone before, in 2012, 2015, late 2018, mid-2020, and late 2022. Each time, it matched a macro bottom in BTC price. Right now, the indicator is sitting just above 0,5. So while it is edging closer to that historical bottom area, it has not clearly broken into it yet.
An analyst on X who goes by PositiveCrypto put it simply: daily miner revenue is well below its 365-day average, a pattern he says has shown up more often near the late stages of bear markets. That suggests miners are still under strain, but the market has not fully capitulated.
Long-Term Holders Keep Accumulating
At the same time, the other side of the market is showing a different kind of strength. Long-term holder supply, which tracks coins that have not moved for more than 155 days, reached a record 16,75 million BTC on July 11, according to Galaxy Research. That works out to almost 84% of the circulating supply.
That setup matters. A record amount of BTC sitting with long-term holders while Bitcoin still trades far below its peak points more to accumulation than distribution. In earlier cycles, this metric also kept rising as the bear market deepened, and it continued climbing until the final bottom was in. Long-term holders also turned back into net buyers on July 11 and 12.
For European crypto readers, that is especially notable because on-chain data often shows how strong the market structure is before price action makes it obvious. If miners stay under pressure while long-term holders keep buying, that could help explain why the downtrend is losing momentum, even if it does not mean the final turning point has arrived. That also lines up with the recent shift back to accumulation among long-term holders, which showed selling pressure was easing.
What This Says About BTC
Put together, the two signals tell a familiar story: strong hands are accumulating into weakness, while the kind of capitulation that marked earlier Bitcoin bear market lows is still not fully visible. If the Puell Multiple drops clearly below 0,5 and long-term holder supply keeps rising, that would look a lot more like previous cycle bottoms.
On-chain models point to a possible bottom near $47,000 (€41,200), about 25% below the current price. Still, the indicator’s smaller swings suggest Bitcoin is now in a more mature market than in earlier cycles. That means even a brief move into the 0,5 zone could be enough to signal that the bottoming process is underway.
