Bitcoin Pulls Ahead of the Nasdaq and S&P 500
Bitcoin rose 26% in August and is moving more closely with gold than with U.S. stocks. Traders are now mainly watching Fed signals and the dollar.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin rose 26% in August and outperformed gold, the Nasdaq 100, and the S&P 500.
- The 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold has climbed to +0.81, while the relationship with the Dollar Index weakened to -0.86.
- Investors are watching U.S. interest rates, Treasury yields, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech in Jackson Hole.
Bitcoin is outperforming gold, the Nasdaq 100, and the S&P 500 this month, right at a time when the crypto market is closely watching macro news out of the United States. The BTC price rose 26% in August and recently sat around $79,200 (€68,000), while gold gained 13.8% and the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 rose 4.8% and 3.2%, respectively.
Bitcoin and Gold Are Moving Closer Together
According to TradingView, the 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold has climbed to +0.81. That suggests the two are more often moving in the same direction. The relationship with the Dollar Index has weakened further to -0.86, which shows that Bitcoin is more often moving opposite the dollar.
That shift fits the view that Bitcoin is once again being seen more as a kind of digital scarcity asset, alongside gold. That view was strengthened earlier in 2026 when Bitcoin fell more than 50% below its all-time high in the second quarter and closed below the 200-week moving average for the first time since 2023. At the same time, gold and oil posted strong gains this year, with gold even rising to a record of $4,722 (€4,050) per ounce.
The Fed and Treasury Are Keeping the Market Busy
The broader market is meanwhile watching U.S. interest rates and the role of the Federal Reserve. Concerns about the U.S. budget recently pushed longer-dated Treasury yields to their highest level since 2007. Last week, the U.S. Treasury Department announced a bond buyback plan to ease yields, but that does not solve the underlying problems.
That is why traders are paying extra attention to the speech by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh in Jackson Hole. He is expected to address inflation and interest rates, although his preference for giving little forward guidance makes a major announcement less likely.
Bitcoin is meanwhile still close to the zone where a lot of trading took place earlier. A recent market update also pointed to resistance around $80,000 to $82,000, an area where a lot of supply and ETF cost bases come together.
What This Means for European Readers
For European crypto investors, the main takeaway is that Bitcoin is behaving less and less like a pure risk trade alongside stocks. The stronger link with gold and the weaker tie to the Nasdaq could suggest that macro factors, such as rate expectations and the dollar, are once again carrying more weight in pricing. The growth of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S., the U.K., and Hong Kong also shows that institutional demand is playing a bigger role than in earlier cycles.
