Bitcoin Rises an Average of 53.7% After U.S. Midterms
CoinDesk sees an average gain of 53.7% over 12 months after past midterms, although the four-year halving cycle also plays a role. The outcome in 2026 could also shape the debate in Washington over crypto and regulation.
Key Takeaways
- Since 2009, Bitcoin has risen an average of 53.7% in the 12 months after three of the four U.S. midterms.
- The price recently sat around $80,000, after a rebound of more than 35% since the low below $60,000 in June.
- In addition to midterms, the four-year halving cycle also plays a role, while the S&P 500 gained an average of 15.17% in the year after midterms.
Bitcoin and Wall Street could enter another strong stretch after the American midterm elections if history repeats itself. Since 2009, Bitcoin has risen an average of 53.7% in the 12 months after three of the four midterms, excluding 2010, when the market was still small and immature. The price has recently been trading around $80,000 (€71,700), after a rebound of more than 35% since the low below $60,000 (€53,800) in June.
Historical Pattern Around Midterms
The figures come from a CoinDesk analysis and measure returns from the closing price on Election Day to the same date one year later. In 2010, Bitcoin did jump 1,579% after the midterms, but that year is often left out because the market was still too small to be properly comparable.
The broader trend is that Bitcoin often makes sharp moves in the months around midterms. According to the market history provided, the price often fell in the run-up to elections in earlier cycles, only to post strong gains in the year that followed.
Halving or Politics
Still, it is too simple to attribute those gains only to U.S. politics. Bitcoin also moves in a four-year cycle around the halving, when the reward for miners is cut in half every four years. After the four halvings so far, a strong bull market followed each time, with a peak 12 to 18 months later and then a bear market.
That means the rebound after earlier midterms may also have been the start of a new cycle. The current phase fits that pattern, but it is still hard to separate politics from the halving.
Why This Matters for Investors
The S&P 500 shows a similar seasonal pattern too. Since 1950, the index has gained an average of 15.17% in the year after midterms, compared with 7.30% in other years. For crypto investors, that matters because a stronger stock market often lines up with more interest in riskier investments, although that does not say anything certain about Bitcoin's price itself.
The 2026 elections could also affect the debate over U.S. government debt and defense spending. A divided Congress could actually reduce political uncertainty, while discussions in Washington about crypto and regulation could also play a role in how the market views Bitcoin over the next year. In that broader macro picture, the Fed debates also remain important, because interest rate expectations often feed directly into demand for Bitcoin and gold.
