Bitcoin Signals Turn Green, But Analysts Stay Cautious
MVRV and the weekly MACD are turning positive, but BTC remains under pressure around $81,679. Analysts are questioning whether the four-year cycle still holds.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin got two positive momentum signals this week, but the price lagged and was around $81,679, below $83,094.
- The MVRV indicator turned green, and the weekly MACD moved above zero after 44 weeks below the line.
- Analysts remain cautious because the four-year cycle is under pressure and sentiment has risen faster than the price.
Bitcoin picked up two closely watched momentum signals this week, but the price itself lagged behind. BTC is trading around $81,679 (€72,600), down 1.7% in 24 hours, and still below the $83,094 (€73,800) level shown on a PlanB chart.
MVRV Turns Green Again
PlanB, the creator of the stock-to-flow model, shared a chart from Block Horizon that tracks Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value, or MVRV. That indicator compares market value with the total cost basis of all coins in circulation. According to the chart, the oscillator turned green on October 13 at +0.07, after a red period that started in late 2025.
Historically, green MVRV readings have more often lined up with bull markets, while red values have tended to fit bear market phases. The current MVRV reading was 1.53 on October 15, 2026, which suggests the average holder is still in profit. At the same time, true market tops have historically been more common above 3.5, while levels below 1.0 have often lined up with major bottoms.
MACD Is Flashing a Signal Too
Analyst Quinten Francois also pointed to Bitcoin’s weekly MACD. That indicator, which compares short- and long-term moving averages to spot trend changes, moved above zero after spending 44 weeks below the line.
That also happened in 2019 and 2023, but with very different outcomes. In 2023, it was followed by a rise from about $25,000 (€22,200) to above $70,000 (€62,200) within a year. In 2019, BTC first climbed to nearly $13,800 (€12,300), then fell below $4,000 (€3,550) in March 2020. A separate 50-week signal also turned positive again last month after 45 weeks.
Why This Matters
For European crypto followers, the key point is that several signals are now pointing in the same direction at once, while the price still is not fully keeping up. That makes the picture less clear-cut than a simple bull case. The next few weeks could show whether the optimism is broad enough to hold. That fits the broader picture of a market that is recovering, but still vulnerable to sudden pullbacks, as the recent dip below $80,000 showed.
Four-Year Cycle Under Pressure
Eric Crown, a member of BeInCrypto’s Market Intelligence Expert Council, says the well-known four-year cycle no longer works neatly. According to him, there are only two options left: either Bitcoin already hit a bottom in July and got ahead of schedule, or the bottom comes later and has also broken outside the old pattern.
The previous lows came about a year after each cycle peak, which previously pointed to a bottom in fall 2026. Benjamin Cowen also expected a bottom in October, but admitted in September that his bearish call did not play out. Bitcoin still dropped to $57,800 (€51,400) on July 1, about three months earlier than that old schedule suggested.
CryptoQuant meanwhile sees sentiment rising sharply. The Analyst Consensus Index climbed from -18.3 on July 2 to +49.2 on October 13, while the share of bullish analysts rose from 37% to 84% over that period. The price did not fully keep pace: Bitcoin peaked around $87,000 (€77,300) in late September and is now about 6% lower.
