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Bitcoin’s Correlation With the Yen Is the Strongest Since 2022

The -0.90 correlation with USD/JPY points to a rare, strong link between Bitcoin and the currency market, while the classic carry-trade logic fits less well.

By Zenz van der Wielen
• 2 min read
Bitcoin’s Correlation With the Yen Is the Strongest Since 2022

Key Takeaways

  • The 52-week correlation between Bitcoin and USD/JPY is -0.90, the lowest level since late 2022.
  • The data do not line up well with the usual carry-trade explanation, where a weak yen would normally be positive for Bitcoin.
  • For European investors, this shows that Bitcoin is increasingly moving with broader macro factors and currency markets.

Bitcoin is trading in unusually tight step with the dollar-yen pair, which is making the usual carry-trade story around crypto risk look less convincing. TradingView data show that the 52-week correlation between Coinbase’s BTC/USD pair and USD/JPY sits at -0.90, the weakest reading since late 2022. In plain terms, Bitcoin has tended to fall when USD/JPY rises, and to rise when the pair moves the other way.

Correlation at a Rare Level

A -0.90 correlation is exceptionally strong for Bitcoin and a major currency pair. Over the past 52 weeks, BTC/USD and USD/JPY have been moving in opposite directions far more often than not. For context, Bitcoin’s relationship with major FX pairs has usually been much less stable, typically landing somewhere between -0.3 and +0.3.

That makes the current reading worth paying attention to. The calculated R2 of roughly 0.81 suggests that a large share of the weekly moves in BTC/USD has statistically lined up with changes in USD/JPY. That does not prove one is causing the other, but it does show that the usual loose connection between crypto and currencies has become much tighter for now.

Carry Trade Is Losing Its Grip

The classic carry-trade view says a weaker yen, which shows up as a higher USD/JPY, should support risk assets like Bitcoin. The idea is that investors borrow cheaply in yen and chase higher returns elsewhere. Under that logic, a stronger yen would normally be a headwind for crypto and stocks.

The latest data do not fit that framework very well. In the summer of 2024, a Bank of Japan rate hike still sparked a sharp yen rally and a broad market selloff, with Bitcoin sliding from about $65,000 (€57,000) to $50,000 (€43,800). Now the yen is under renewed pressure, helped in part by a downtrend that has been in place since April 2025. Worries about Japan’s government debt burden and its high debt-to-GDP ratio are also adding to the strain.

That also matches the broader macro pressure hitting crypto, where Bitcoin Falls Below $60,000 Despite Tech Stock Recovery already showed how a stronger dollar and a hawkish Fed can weigh on prices.

What This Means for European Readers

For European crypto investors, the main takeaway is that Bitcoin appears to be trading more and more on broad macro forces rather than just crypto-specific headlines. If the dollar stays strong because rate expectations in the US are being repriced, that can move both the yen and Bitcoin without any direct crypto catalyst. For anyone trying to understand where the market is headed, currency moves are becoming harder to ignore.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. The information provided may be incomplete, inaccurate, or outdated and should not be relied upon as such. Nothing on this website should be considered a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any cryptocurrency. Investing in crypto-assets involves risk of loss.