Citigroup Raises Bitcoin Target to $113,000
Citi sees more support from ETF flows and macro factors, despite recent outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. The Ethereum estimate also moved higher.
Key Takeaways
- Citigroup raised its 12-month Bitcoin target to $113,000, from $82,000 before.
- The Ethereum forecast also moved higher to $3,028, from $2,240.
- Citi expects $5 billion in Bitcoin inflows over the next 12 months, despite recent outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Citigroup has raised its 12-month target for Bitcoin to $113,000 (€100,000), from $82,000 (€72,600) before. The Ethereum forecast also moved higher, to $3,028 (€2,680), from $2,240 (€1,980). Notably, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $148.69 million (€132 million) flow out on the same day.
Why Citi Changed Its View
According to Citi analyst Alex Saunders, the change came from improvement in the areas the bank tracks: activity, macro, and ETF flows. He said concerns about money debasement, along with SEC rules and the failed Clarity Act, helped push crypto back above key technical levels.
That means the bank quickly reversed an earlier cut. In June, Citi had lowered its ETF inflow forecast to zero, from $10 billion (€8.9 billion), while also cutting its Bitcoin target to $82,000 (€72,600). At the time, Bitcoin was around $59,000 (€52,200) and Ethereum was around $1,600 (€1,420).
ETF Flows Remain Key
Citi now expects $5 billion (€4.4 billion) in inflows over the next 12 months. The bank expects advisors and brokerages to gradually increase their Bitcoin allocations. That keeps ETF demand an important factor for Bitcoin's price.
Recent market moves do show that those inflows do not move in a straight line. Bitcoin had already been stuck between $82,000 and $85,000 when spot ETFs, after a long stretch of inflows, started showing outflows again. Bitcoin ETFs saw weaker demand again at the end of September, while CryptoQuant estimated that visible spot demand shrank by 170,000 BTC over 30 days. At the same time, Bitcoin did break above its 200-day moving average in September, and a golden cross followed on September 8, when the 50-day moving average moved above the 200-day moving average.
What This Says About Bitcoin and Ethereum
At the time of publication, Bitcoin was trading around $84,591 (€74,900), which means Citi's new target is still about 34% higher. Ethereum was trading around $2,699.46 (€2,390), which means the new estimate leaves only limited upside from the current price. That gap shows the bank now values the two biggest cryptos very differently.
For European crypto followers, the main takeaway is that big banks are tying their models more and more to ETF flows and macro factors. That makes the U.S. spot market and regulator policy more important outside the U.S. too for the broader crypto market, especially as institutional allocations keep building through investment products.
