Cowen Says Crypto Is Cheapest Since 2010, But the Bottom May Still Be Ahead

Cowen’s trend model still shows the total crypto market trading well below fair value, and he says Bitcoin could face more downside in the coming weeks despite the summer bounce.

Key Takeaways

• Benjamin Cowen says crypto has not been this cheap relative to the long-term trend since 2010, but the bottom still may not be in.
• The total crypto market traded 62.49% below fair value on July 31, according to Cowen’s logarithmic regression trend.
• Cowen expects possible new pressure on Bitcoin within two to three weeks and says he would rather DCA than try to time the bottom.

According to Benjamin Cowen, crypto has not looked this cheap versus its long-term trend since 2010, but he still does not think the market has clearly bottomed. The founder of Into The Cryptoverse says the third quarter could still bring more downside, even though his model shows the market trading below fair value.

Market Still Below Trend

Cowen, who also sits on BeInCrypto’s Markets Intelligence Council, measured the total crypto market against his logarithmic regression trend. Using that framework, the total market cap was $2,152 trillion (€1.9 trillion) on July 31, while fair value was $5,737 trillion (€5 trillion). In other words, crypto was trading 62.49% below fair value, with the market price sitting at 37.52% of that level.

He says that is the weakest reading since the early days of the industry. The only lower ratio came on September 20, 2010. Cowen also notes that the discount could deepen if prices move sideways, since fair value continues to rise over time.

Summer Strength Could Reverse Fast

Cowen does not expect Bitcoin’s recent rebound to keep going for much longer. Bitcoin was still up 10.42% in July, but he thinks the next stretch of weakness could begin within two to three weeks. He points to midterm-year seasonality and higher bond yields as possible reasons the market could come under renewed pressure.

He says those seasonal patterns have shown up before. August and September were both negative in 2014, 2018, and 2022, and in earlier cycles, weakness often started as soon as August. BTC is trading around $62,648 (€54,300), roughly 45% below where it was a year ago and 27% lower than at the start of this year.

Why This Matters for Investors

For European crypto investors, the main takeaway is that Cowen does not see this cycle as euphoric. Instead, he describes it more as a period of apathy. That matches his broader view of a market where retail participation is still limited and speculation is far less intense than it was at previous tops. In his model, that suggests the market may still need more time before a durable bottom shows up.

Cowen still holds to a longer-term view that the crypto market can eventually climb toward $10 trillion (€8.7 trillion), plus or minus a few trillion. Even so, he warns that a longer four-year cycle, similar to 2022, could push the recovery out to 2027. That is why he says he would rather stick with a DCA strategy than try to call the exact bottom.