Ethereum Breaks Out Against Bitcoin, But 60% Dominance Still Holds
ETH/BTC broke out of a downward channel, but Bitcoin dominance around 60% suggests a broad altcoin rotation still has not been confirmed.
Key Takeaways
- Ethereum broke out of a downward channel against Bitcoin in July and is now trading around 0.0289 on the ETH/BTC ratio.
- Whales bought 50,000 ETH this month, while Ethereum itself is at $1,881, 2.2% lower than 24 hours earlier.
- Bitcoin dominance is climbing back toward 60%, so a real altcoin season in 2026 still has not been confirmed.
Ethereum has finally pushed above Bitcoin after nearly a year of lagging behind. In July, the ETH/BTC ratio broke out of a downward channel that had capped upside momentum since August 2025, but the wider market still has not gotten the kind of signal that would confirm a true altcoin season in 2026.
ETH/BTC Turns Higher
On the three-day chart, ETH/BTC had been trapped in a descending parallel channel for almost a year, printing lower highs and lower lows along the way. Closing above the top of that range is a meaningful technical shift for Ethereum relative to Bitcoin.
The ratio is now sitting near 0.0289, while Ethereum itself trades at $1,881 (€1,650), down 2.2% over the past 24 hours. According to the market data, whales also picked up 50,000 ETH this month as the ratio rose 6%. That gives the breakout some extra support, although the move still needs follow-through before it can be treated as fully confirmed.
The first upside hurdles are at 0.0316 and then 0.0352. Even so, the ratio remains below the 200-day moving average. A move back above that line could clear the way toward the first resistance zone, while a drop back to 0.0259 would put the breakout back under pressure.
Momentum had already started to improve before price fully caught up. The three-day Relative Strength Index broke out of a long-running falling wedge at the end of June and is now around 57, comfortably above neutral. In other words, the recent rebound is being backed by more than just price action.
Bitcoin Dominance Stays High
Bitcoin dominance, however, is telling a much more cautious story. The metric is moving back toward 60%, a level that has often acted as an inflection point in previous cycles. Since 2017, Bitcoin dominance has mostly traded between 33% and 73%, with major peaks in January 2018 and April 2021.
That makes the current setup especially important for traders waiting on a broader move into altcoins. On the monthly chart, dominance was rejected near 66% in 2025, but it never fell far enough to revisit the deeper levels that have historically lined up with a full rotation. The Altcoin Season Index is often used as a secondary gauge in this kind of environment, since it tracks how many of the top 100 coins outperform Bitcoin over a 90-day stretch.
On the three-day chart, dominance has been stuck between 58% and 60.7% since August 2025. The 59.5% area matters most right now because it brings together a broken support line and a Fibonacci level. If that zone rejects price, pressure could build toward 58% and possibly 55.66%. A move back above 61%, on the other hand, would likely delay any altcoin rotation even further.
Why This Matters for Europe
For European crypto investors, the key question is whether the market is shifting into a broader altcoin rotation or still being led by Bitcoin. The answer matters for trading volume, risk appetite, and how new positions are being built over the next few weeks. Ethereum is showing real technical improvement, but as long as Bitcoin dominance stays near 60%, there is still no firm confirmation that the wider market has turned. The recent accumulation by new Ethereum wallets does fit the early-rotation setup, but it does not yet point to a fully confirmed altcoin phase.
