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Grayscale Says HYPE Looks Cheap Next to Fintech Stocks

Grayscale is valuing HYPE with an earnings-per-token model, treating it more like a cash flow asset while spot fund outflows and recent unstaking continue to weigh on sentiment.

By Zenz van der Wielen
• 2 min read
Grayscale Says HYPE Looks Cheap Next to Fintech Stocks

Key Takeaways

  • Grayscale Research says HYPE may still look cheap compared with fintech stocks and values the token based on cash flows.
  • The firm uses an earnings-per-token model and estimates about $1 billion in profit for 2027, or $3.25 to $3.75 in earnings per token.
  • HYPE fell more than 13 percent over the past month, while outflows from spot funds and unstaking by large players weighed on sentiment.

Grayscale Research says Hyperliquid's HYPE token could still be undervalued compared with fintech stocks. Rather than treating it like a purely speculative crypto asset, the firm is pricing it off cash flows, more like a stock. That shifts the discussion from simple price action to a more traditional valuation debate.

Valuation Through Earnings Per Token

In a Tuesday note, lead researcher Zach Pandl laid out a so-called earnings-per-token framework. The approach borrows from the stock market's earnings-per-share model, adjusted for Hyperliquid since the protocol does not issue shares. Grayscale's base case assumes the network could produce about $1 billion (€0.9 billion) in profit in 2027, which is roughly 20 percent higher than its 2025 estimate.

The report says that growth should be supported by two main drivers: a rebound in crypto trading volumes and income from stablecoin reserves held under Hyperliquid's Aligned Quote Asset framework. Pandl expects circulating supply to climb to between 270 million and 310 million tokens by the end of 2027. On that basis, Grayscale projects earnings of $3.25 (€2.86) to $3.75 (€3.30) per token, which at a $54 (€48) price implies a forward multiple of about 15x to 18x.

The note also flags a few risks. If network revenue grows more slowly than expected, or if token supply expands faster, the valuation case could come under pressure.

Pressure on HYPE Remains High

That valuation call comes during a weak stretch for HYPE. The token has lost more than 13 percent over the past month and is still trading far below its June all-time high of $76.02 (€67). Compared with other major crypto assets, HYPE has lagged over the same period.

Sentiment was also hit by institutional activity. Multicoin Capital and Paradigm unstaked roughly $291 million (€256 million) worth of HYPE last week. Spot HYPE funds also posted $8.6 million (€7.6 million) in outflows over the same period, marking a second straight week of net losses, while assets under management dropped 18 percent from the July 10 peak.

Why This Matters

For European crypto readers, the main point is that HYPE is increasingly being discussed as a token with a cash flow profile, not just a trading vehicle. That fits a wider trend in which major asset managers and institutional investors are trying to value tokens with tools that look a lot more like traditional finance. Still, the recent outflows are a reminder that a solid valuation case does not mean the market will immediately agree. In the broader conversation about Hyperliquid's place in the market, there is also the question of how the exchange evolves as a trading platform, especially in discussions around 24/7 crypto trading.

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