JPMorgan Sees Hyperliquid Deal as a Headwind for Circle and Coinbase

JPMorgan is lowering profit expectations for Circle and Coinbase as Hyperliquid gains more control over USDC liquidity. The bank sees the bigger long-term risk landing on Circle.

Key Takeaways

• JPMorgan cut profit expectations for Circle and Coinbase after Hyperliquid’s updated deal, which is adding near-term pressure to USDC-linked revenue.
• The bank says Circle faces the bigger long-term risk because the economics around the dollar-pegged stablecoin are getting tighter.
• Hyperliquid now holds about $6 billion in USDC and is an official USDC deployer, while weaker trading volumes and lower prices are also weighing on the sector.

JPMorgan has lowered its profit forecasts for Circle Internet and Coinbase after Hyperliquid’s updated agreement reportedly added short-term pressure to USDC-related revenue, according to the bank. JPMorgan sees the bigger long-term threat as falling on Circle, since the deal is putting more strain on the economics behind the dollar-pegged stablecoin.

Pressure on the USDC Economy

JPMorgan says the setup creates something close to a prisoner’s dilemma. Circle and crypto exchange Coinbase may end up fighting harder over USDC distribution, even if that weakens both sides’ business models. In the end, the issue is who controls the stablecoin spread and who captures the most value from it.

The bank also says Hyperliquid is becoming an increasingly important player in the market. The platform is now one of the largest crypto trading venues and, according to JPMorgan, holds about $6 billion (€5.3 billion) in USDC, or roughly 8% of the circulating supply.

Hyperliquid Is Growing Fast

That position was built quickly. Hyperliquid has rapidly gained share in perpetual futures and handled nearly $200 billion (€175 billion) in monthly volume in March 2026. Its expansion into non-crypto markets, including oil, has also supported that growth by keeping trading open around the clock and sidestepping weekend gaps.

The updated partnership also makes Hyperliquid the official USDC deployer, which means stablecoin liquidity on the platform is now managed more centrally. For European crypto readers, that matters because it shows how fast a major DeFi environment can become a key part of stablecoin distribution and a revenue source for large U.S. crypto companies. In a broader market where the stablecoin market has recently come under pressure, that makes USDC’s role even more important. Stablecoin Market Sees Biggest Drop Since 2022, Led by USDT and USDC

Broader Impact on Stocks

JPMorgan said the lower estimates are not just about Hyperliquid. Weaker crypto trading volumes and lower asset prices are also part of the picture. Together, those factors are adding pressure on Circle and Coinbase in a broader market where both trading activity and stablecoin revenue are becoming more sensitive to liquidity shifts and platform control.