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Kalshi CEO Sees CME, Robinhood, and DraftKings as Biggest Rivals

Kalshi does not see Polymarket as the main threat, but big names like CME, Robinhood, and DraftKings as the real competition. New CFTC rules could shift the balance of power in the market even more.

By Finst News
• 2 min read
Kalshi CEO Sees CME, Robinhood, and DraftKings as Biggest Rivals

Key Takeaways

  • Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour sees CME Group, Robinhood, and DraftKings as bigger competitors than Polymarket.
  • Kalshi has about 91% market share in the regulated U.S. prediction market, according to Bank of America.
  • The CFTC proposed new rules for sports-related contracts, which could affect the market structure in the U.S.

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour does not see Polymarket as his main competitor in the American prediction market. In an interview with Front Office Sports, he said bigger players from the trading and betting worlds, like CME Group, Robinhood, and DraftKings, are a bigger threat to his platform than direct rival Polymarket.

Kalshi's Dominance in Regulated Prediction Markets

Kalshi has a dominant position in the regulated U.S. prediction market, with about 91% market share according to analysts at Bank of America. While Polymarket and Underdog are also active, Kalshi leads in open interest and the number of active markets. Over the past 30 days, trading volume on Kalshi was about $9.8 billion (€8.5 billion), almost the same as Polymarket's $9.9 billion (€8.5 billion). Even so, Kalshi remains the biggest player where it really counts, with about $1 billion (€0.9 billion) of the sector's $1.6 billion (€1.4 billion) in open interest.

More Competition From Big Financial and Betting Companies

Mansour mainly points to the growing competition from CME Group, which launched FanDuel Predicts, a platform for trading event contracts on sports outcomes and economic data. Robinhood has also added prediction markets based on Kalshi's exchange, and it also runs contracts through a partnership with Susquehanna. On top of that, DraftKings, a well-known sportsbook operator, has entered the prediction market with DraftKings Predictions. Other players like Novig and Coinbase are also moving into this market, making the competition broader than just Kalshi versus Polymarket.

Regulation and the Future of Prediction Markets

Mansour argues that Polymarket should also come under the regulated umbrella, partly because recent cases of alleged insider trading on the international platform could hurt the industry's image. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) recently proposed broad rules that would allow the use of sports-related contracts, with limits on in-game betting and certain sports categories. This regulation could further affect the market structure and competitive dynamics in U.S. prediction markets.

The integration of Kalshi and Polymarket data into Google Finance also increases the visibility and accessibility of prediction markets. For now, Kalshi remains the dominant regulated player, while Polymarket and other newcomers try to gain ground inside and outside the regulated framework. The upcoming comment period on the CFTC rules could be key to how quickly that balance changes.

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