Kevin O'Leary Sees $1 Million Bitcoin, but Flags Risk
O’Leary ties his price target to quantum computing and whether Bitcoin’s encryption can hold up over time. NIST and Google are also working on post-quantum security.
Key Takeaways
- Kevin O’Leary says Bitcoin could one day reach $1 million if confidence grows in its protection against quantum computing.
- His caution centers on the Q-Day scenario, where quantum computers could potentially break Bitcoin cryptography and encryption.
- O’Leary and other market players see this security risk as a factor that could limit institutional Bitcoin exposure.
Kevin O’Leary says Bitcoin could one day reach $1 million (€0.9 million), but only if the market gains more confidence that quantum computing cannot break the network’s security. The O’Leary Ventures chairman explained that condition in a conversation with The Rollup during Avalanche Summit in New York.
Quantum Concerns Take Center Stage
O’Leary was asked right away whether Bitcoin could ever climb into seven figures. His answer was yes, but he tied that to one big issue: uncertainty around quantum computing and whether the technology could weaken Bitcoin’s algorithms, chain, and encryption.
That concern centers on the so-called Q-Day scenario, the moment when a quantum computer becomes powerful enough to break public cryptography. That is not the case yet. Still, attention on the topic is growing because recent estimates suggest the technical hurdle is lower than previously thought. Blockstream recently proposed a post-quantum alternative, showing that developers are already thinking about a possible defense.
How Big Is the Risk
Bitcoin traded around $81,177 (€70,800) on September 19, according to BeInCrypto Markets. A move to $1 million (€0.9 million) would mean a gain of about 1,132 percent, or more than 12 times the current level.
The debate is not just about the future. Glassnode calculated in May that about 6.04 million BTC, or 30.2 percent of the issued supply, is already sitting in addresses whose public keys are visible. In theory, that makes part of the supply easier to identify if quantum key-breaking ever becomes practical.
The timeline for defense is getting shorter too. NIST wants to phase out vulnerable encryption by 2030 and ban it by 2035. Google has set a 2029 deadline for its own move to post-quantum security. That makes preparation more urgent, even if Q-Day is still not in sight.
Why This Matters for Investors
O’Leary said earlier this year that institutions would not go beyond a 3 percent Bitcoin exposure as long as this risk remains unresolved. Jefferies strategist Christopher Wood also removed a 10 percent Bitcoin position from his model portfolio for the same reason. For European crypto followers, this shows that security is not just a technical topic, but also something that shapes how big players view Bitcoin.
