How Bitcoin whales navigate market uncertainty
It's not just Bitcoin's price that’s been on a rollercoaster in recent days.
Not only Bitcoin's price has been on a rollercoaster in recent days. Also in the stock and bond markets, Donald Trump's trade policy is causing significant volatility. Yet the worst for Bitcoin and crypto investors may already be behind us, as suggested by on-chain data from the analysis platform CryptoQuant.
The analyst going by the name “DarkFost” studied the behavior of so-called whales on the crypto exchange Binance. This exchange is seen as a reliable gauge of overall market sentiment.
From his analysis it appears that Bitcoin's long-term inflows on Binance (measured via the 365-day moving average) are steadily rising. In the short term (30-day moving average), however, there is a clear decline in Bitcoin inflows. That is notable, because inflows to exchanges are usually interpreted as selling pressure from large investors moving their coins from cold wallets to exchanges.
According to DarkFost, the current development suggests selling pressure among large Bitcoin investors is slowly easing.
The behavior of so-called Short Term Holders (STH), i.e., investors with a short-term view, confirms this picture. Around the peak of the market tension, many of these investors sold their Bitcoin at a loss, a sign of panic and stress. But now calm seems to be returning to this group as well: at the start of March, 14,000 BTC flowed from STHs toward Binance; that number has since fallen to about 9,000 BTC.
The interpretation of these data: selling pressure is easing among both large and smaller, short-term investors — and market analysts see that as a positive signal.
Still, caution is advised. The market remains sensitive to political shifts, and given the volatility of Trump’s tariff policy, sentiment can flip quickly.
