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Polymarket Puts Clarity Act Approval Odds at 43% After Trump Ethics Rumors

Polymarket traders are now pricing in a better chance of approval in 2026 after the ethics provision tied to Trump may have been untangled. The bill is meant to clarify the roles of the SEC and CFTC in the U.S.

By Mike Hesp
• 2 min read
Polymarket Puts Clarity Act Approval Odds at 43% After Trump Ethics Rumors

Key Takeaways

  • Polymarket traders are now pricing the Clarity Act’s chances of passing in 2026 at about 43% after reports about Trump and the ethics provision began to circulate.
  • The Clarity Act is designed to create a federal crypto framework in the United States and spell out the separate roles of the SEC and CFTC.
  • The bill is still far from settled: Democrats have not seen the text, no public version has been released, and the Senate still needs to vote.

Polymarket traders quickly lifted the odds of the Clarity Act becoming law this year after reports circulated that President Trump had accepted the ethics provision that was slowing the bill down. The market now puts approval odds at roughly 43% in 2026, up from 32% on Friday, after the contract had already slipped to its lowest point since trading launched in January.

Ethics Was the Last Roadblock

Formally known as the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025, the Clarity Act is intended to establish a federal crypto framework in the United States. It would also draw a clearer line between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, making it easier to tell which agency oversees which tokens and investment products.

According to the reports, the ethics provision was the final major sticking point after months of negotiations. The issue centers on how much political figures and other officials should be allowed to benefit from crypto while in office, a sensitive topic given Trump's memecoins and his family's stake in World Liberty Financial. It is the same ethics debate that had already weighed on approval odds in this market update.

No Text Released Yet

Even with that progress, the bill’s outlook is still unclear. A source told CoinDesk that Democrats have not seen the text, and there is still no public version available. As of Monday, the White House and the offices of the senators involved had not commented.

The clock is also ticking. The Senate has until early August to vote. The bill has already cleared the House of Representatives and the Senate Banking Committee, but it still needs approval from the full Senate.

Why This Matters for Europe

For European crypto readers, the main significance is that the Clarity Act is one of the clearest efforts to put the U.S. digital asset market structure into law. A final division of responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC could also shape how international crypto firms organize their U.S. operations, especially as the rules around decentralization and stablecoins continue to develop.

The broader crypto market was in the green on Monday as well. Bitcoin traded around $66,300 (€58,000), up about 3% over the past 24 hours, while Ethereum and XRP each gained roughly 4%. Traders mostly pointed to the rebound in AI and semiconductor stocks, including Samsung and SK Hynix, as the main catalyst, though the possible breakthrough on the ethics provision added to the risk-on tone.

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