Polymarket Pushes Clarity Act Odds to a Record Low as Senate Stalls

Polymarket now puts the odds of approval this year at 32%, while the Senate is still missing the ethics clause and Democratic support.

Key Takeaways

• On Polymarket, the odds that the Clarity Act becomes law this year have fallen to 32%, the lowest level ever.
• The drop is tied to a crowded Senate calendar, no progress on the bill’s text, and questions about bipartisan backing.
• An ethics clause is still the main roadblock, and the summer recess is shrinking the time left for approval.

Polymarket now gives the Clarity Act its weakest odds yet for becoming law this year. The move underscores how unsettled the outlook still is for U.S. crypto legislation, with the Senate still unable to break the deadlock over the bill’s text.

Odds Keep Slipping

On Friday, Polymarket was pricing in just a 32% chance that the bill will pass by December 31, 2026. That is roughly 30 percentage points below where the market stood when it launched on January 11. The odds were still as high as 82% on February 19, but sentiment has steadily deteriorated since then.

The slide reflects a busier Senate schedule and growing doubts about whether there is enough bipartisan support to push the bill through. Earlier this month, lawmakers were still working on a revised version of the text that was expected the following week, but Democratic support was still missing at the time.

Ethics Remains the Biggest Hurdle

The biggest sticking point is still the ethics language. Senator Ruben Gallego has said repeatedly that he will not back the bill on the Senate floor unless it includes a bipartisan ethics clause. Other Democrats have also raised concerns about possible conflicts of interest involving public officials and digital assets.

After a White House meeting on Thursday, there was still no public update on Friday and no sign of a breakthrough on the issue. President Donald Trump was also said to have wanted to speak with Senate Republicans earlier this week about the bill, but there was no official update on that either.

Why This Matters

The Clarity Act is designed to set a federal framework for digital assets in the U.S., including a clearer division of oversight between the SEC and the CFTC. Broadly, the bill would sort digital assets into three buckets: digital commodities, investment contract assets, and permitted payment stablecoins. For European crypto readers, that matters because U.S. rules often influence how major crypto firms design products, handle listings, and approach compliance.

At a House hearing on Friday, industry groups again made the case for that kind of clarity. Nova Labs said uncertainty has slowed investment in the Helium network, while Bullish argued that companies need a clear rule book if they are going to stay under U.S. oversight instead of moving abroad. With Congress heading into its summer recess, the window to get the bill through both chambers this year is getting narrower. Political pressure around the legislation has also picked up in recent weeks, in part because Trump's crypto income has intensified the debate over ethics and conflicts of interest.