Republican Majority Boosts Bitcoin's Chance of Hitting $100,000
A Republican Congress would bring more clarity around crypto rules, according to a Bloomberg poll, as the CLARITY Act stalls in the Senate.
Key Takeaways
- In a Bloomberg survey, 29% see Bitcoin ending 2026 above $100,000 under Republican control of Congress, compared with 8% under a Democratic win.
- Sixteen percent expect Bitcoin to fall below $60,000 under Democratic control, compared with 5% under a Republican Congress.
- The failed vote on the CLARITY Act is keeping U.S. crypto rules unclear for now.
Investors see a Republican-controlled Congress as the best chance for Bitcoin to finish 2026 above $100,000 (€89,500). In a Bloomberg survey of 301 traders, portfolio managers, and other investors, 29% expected that scenario under Republican control, compared with 8% if Democrats win.
What the Poll Shows
The survey also shows that expectations differ on the downside. Sixteen percent think Bitcoin will drop below $60,000 (€53,700) under Democratic control, versus 5% under a Republican Congress. Even in the optimistic scenario, about 70% still did not see Bitcoin finishing above $100,000 (€89,500).
The poll was taken after the U.S. Senate failed on September 15 to get enough support to move the CLARITY Act forward. The bill was meant to create a federal framework for crypto in the U.S. The vote ended 49 to 50, while 60 votes were needed to open debate.
Why Congress Matters
For Bitcoin holders, the election outcome matters because Congress writes the rules for the crypto market. The CLARITY Act was supposed to split authority between the CFTC and the SEC, with the CFTC overseeing digital commodities and the SEC overseeing digital securities. Because that vote failed, the question of what those rules will actually look like remains open for now.
Dennis Porter, co-founder of the Bitcoin advocacy group Satoshi Action Fund, told BeInCrypto that clear rules could attract larger institutions for long-term crypto investments. He did expect that effect to build slowly, though. At the same time, the SEC and CFTC have said they want to use their existing authority to work out interim rules for digital assets while legislation remains stuck.
Broader Market Impact
The Bloomberg survey did not just look at Bitcoin. Under Republican control, 65% expect the S&P 500 rally to speed up or at least stay the same. Under Democratic control, 63% think gains will weaken or turn into losses.
The picture is reversed for bonds. More than half expect Treasury yields to fall under Democrats, which supports bond prices, while 26% expect that under Republicans. The survey does have limits: participants signed up voluntarily through Bloomberg links between October 2 and 17, and the results were not weighted.
Broader market expectations around Bitcoin also remain sharply split. Bitwise Sees $100,000, LO:TECH Does Not previously showed how divided analysts are over whether the coin can still reach that level this year.
