Risk of U.S. recession reaches new record level

While Donald Trump is damaging his U.S. economy with new import tariffs, crypto investors are becoming increasingly nervous.

While Donald Trump is damaging his U.S. economy with new import tariffs, crypto investors are becoming increasingly nervous. After the European Union announced new retaliatory measures, the U.S. president is now threatening import tariffs of as much as 200 percent on alcoholic beverages from the EU.

Due to this latest escalation, the bitcoin price temporarily dropped to $80,100 tonight. At the time of writing, the cryptocurrency is quoting a price of about $80,720, representing a 2.2 percent loss on a daily basis.

Meanwhile, the negative effects of Trump's trade policies are beginning to show more clearly in the U.S. economy. Analysts of JPMorgan, meanwhile, estimate the probability of a recession this year at 40 percent, up 10 percentage points from the beginning of this year.

Also, crypto prediction market Polymarket provides economic problems: according to their forecasts, there is now a 41 percent chance that the U.S. will fall into recession by 2025. During the US presidential election, Polymarket was able to predict the outcome more accurately than many traditional research firms.

It is important to emphasize that a recession is different from a crash in the stock or crypto market. In fact, a recession means that the economy shows negative growth for two consecutive quarters.

In a interview with Fox News, President Trump himself responded calmly to the situation. While he did not venture any firm predictions, he did acknowledge that "disruptions" are inevitable as the country works to rebuild its economic base.

For crypto investors, these economic problems could actually be positive in the medium to long term. Should a recession lead to falling consumer prices, it could encourage the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut interest rates further.