This will be important for Bitcoin and crypto this week
The crypto market looks back on a weak trading week.
The crypto market looks back on a weak trading week. Continued price corrections in the US stock market, along with disappointment over the US's planned strategic Bitcoin reserves, saw Bitcoin (BTC) fall 13 percent weekly to US$81,000. The interim recovery move, after reaching a new multi-month low of $78,167 last week, appears to have ended. Ethereum (ETH) with a price drop of 20 percent, as well as Ripple (XRP) and Solana with a price loss of 27 percent each, further emphasize the weakness of the market. In the new trading week, investors turn their attention to the development of the latest US inflation figures. What other relevant economic data will be central in the coming days is explained in this overview.
The most important economic figures of the week The third trading week of March opens today, Monday, with new US retail data. Mid-week the focus is on central banks. The Japanese Central Bank (BOJ) and the American Central Bank (Fed) both present their latest interest rate decisions for 2025. In the second half of the week, the latest sales figures for existing homes in the US will follow on Thursday.
US retail sales at the start of the week Monday, March 17, 2025: At 1:30 PM (CET), the US Census Bureau will release the final US retail sales figures for February. These figures are seen as an important indicator of the willingness to buy of American households. In December, sales increased by +0.4 percent month-on-month, significantly better than the previous month (+0.2 percent), but less than the expected +0.5 percent. For January, analysts expect a slight decline to +0.3 percent. If the figures exceed this forecast, a positive market reaction can be expected. Strong consumer spending typically causes the US dollar index (DXY) to decline, which can have a positive impact on Bitcoin and especially altcoins.
On the other hand, if expectations are met or even missed and sales are weaker than in previous months, this indicates a declining willingness to buy among Americans. Weak demand can also indicate increased risk aversion, leading to profit-taking in both the financial and crypto markets.Interest rate decision by central banks Japan (BOJ) and US (Fed) mid-week Wednesday, March 19, 2025: At 4:00 AM (CET), the Japanese Central Bank (BOJ) will present its second interest rate decision of this year. After the BOJ unexpectedly raised interest rates by 15 basis points to 0.25 percent at the end of July 2024, causing a stir on the financial markets, investors are focusing heavily on Japan. Analysts now expect a further interest rate increase of 0.25 percentage points to 0.50 percent. If this expectation becomes reality, it could again cause unrest and put pressure on risk assets such as Bitcoin and altcoins in particular. In this way, the central bank is responding to persistently high inflation. However, if interest rates remain the same or rise less sharply, a price rally is also not excluded. The bank president's formulations during the press conference will also be crucial. In August 2024, hawkish statements by the central bank chief caused a sharp correction on global markets due to the unwinding of so-called carry trades by institutional investors. Investors should therefore keep a close eye on the USD/JPY currency pair. Sudden strength in the Japanese yen could indicate a repeat of the market behavior of August 5, 2024.
At 7:00 PM (CET), the American Fed will then publish its second interest rate decision of 2025. After last month's decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.50 percent, analysts expect an interest rate cut of 25 basis points to 4.25 percent with only a three percent chance, despite recently slightly lower core inflation figures. The market seems to be taking this into account with Jerome Powell's hawkish speech on December 18. Although President Donald Trump recently strongly pushed for significantly lower interest rates, the market is counting on a pause for the time being. Investors will therefore pay particular attention to Fed Chairman Powell's statements during the press conference at 8:30 PM. Dovish comments from Powell, indicating prolonged monetary easing, could be positive for risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. However, if he speaks hawkishly again, with warnings about continued strict fiscal policy if necessary, further price falls on financial markets could occur.Sales figures for existing homes on Thursday Thursday, March 20, 2025: The latest figures on sales of existing homes in the US will be released at 3:00 PM (CET). After three months of rising figures, analysts expect a slight decline in January to 4.13 million homes sold. If these expectations are not met, this confirms that high mortgage interest rates and a tight housing market act as a deterrent for potential home buyers. The interim improvement in the housing market therefore appears to be over for the time being.
