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U.S. Users Are Placing Billions in Bets on Offshore Prediction Markets

Even with a ban in place, Americans are still betting billions on offshore prediction markets. New figures show how big that flow is and how regulators are responding.

By Luc Vesters
• 2 min read
U.S. Users Are Placing Billions in Bets on Offshore Prediction Markets

Key Takeaways

  • According to a report, U.S. users are betting between $11 billion and $34 billion on offshore prediction markets, including through VPNs.
  • Polymarket remains popular with U.S. users, while offshore platforms still accounted for 60.9% of total volume in 2025.
  • The CFTC is working on new rules for prediction markets while also pursuing legal cases against states over their anti-gambling laws.

American users are still betting heavily on offshore prediction markets, even though these platforms are officially banned for U.S. residents. According to a recent report from consulting firm Crane Zeng, which specializes in political strategy and prediction markets, between $11 billion and $34 billion in trading volume may be coming from U.S. users accessing these platforms through VPNs and other methods.

Growth and Size of Offshore Prediction Markets

Prediction markets, where users bet on the outcomes of political, economic, or sports events, have grown a lot in popularity over the past few years. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi offer these services, with Polymarket banned in the U.S. since 2022 because it did not have the proper registration. Even so, the report says about 30% of Polymarket's trading volume comes from U.S. users. Offshore platforms still made up 84.4% of total volume in 2024, but that share fell to 60.9% in 2025, even though total trading volume was nearly four times higher.

Regulation and Legal Developments in the U.S.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) plays a central role in regulating prediction markets in the U.S. Although Polymarket was banned in 2022, the platform was allowed to return under supervision in 2024 through a registered subsidiary. Kalshi also won a successful lawsuit against the CFTC, which let it expand its services. The CFTC is now working on formal rules that should make prediction markets possible on a national level in a way that is similar to sports betting, with certain limits. At the same time, the CFTC is pursuing legal cases against several states that want to apply their own anti-gambling laws to these markets.

Accessibility and Impact for U.S. Users

The popularity of blockchain-based prediction markets is partly tied to anonymity and the lack of KYC checks, which makes it relatively easy for U.S. users to keep using offshore platforms. That raises questions about oversight and possible risks, especially given concerns about fraud and insider trading in these markets. Still, the growth is striking: the report predicts that U.S. user volume on offshore prediction markets could reach $133 billion a year by 2030, assuming market share splits stay the same.

These developments matter for European and Dutch crypto fans because they show the dynamic between regulation, technological innovation, and user behavior in a fast-growing sector. They also show how regulation and market access affect each other in a cross-border digital economy.

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