Arthur Hayes Sees AI Bubble and Bitcoin as the Exit
Hayes links the AI expansion to high debt and a possible bailout. In that scenario, he sees Bitcoin and other crypto as a place for freed-up liquidity to flow.
Key Takeaways
- Arthur Hayes warns that the rapid buildout of AI data centers could end in a crash and then a bailout.
- According to Hayes, Bitcoin could benefit if excess liquidity is released after such a rescue.
- The AI boom is already affecting Bitcoin miners, who are increasingly shifting to AI computing and signing new contracts.
Arthur Hayes warns that the massive buildout of AI data centers could eventually turn into a crash and a bailout. According to the former BitMEX executive, Bitcoin could then benefit along with other crypto from the excess liquidity that gets released.
AI Buildout Is Getting More Expensive
Hayes told CNBC at the Gamma Prime Investing Conference in Singapore that current spending, in his view, amounts to wasting “multi-trillion dollars.” For the U.S. buildout, estimates range from $2.8 trillion (€2.5 trillion) by 2030 to $10.3 trillion (€9.1 trillion) by 2032, Forbes reported. According to credit platform Atrium, at least $1.3 trillion (€1.2 trillion) in debt has already been raised.
He expects the sector to be left with cheap and widely available computing power after the construction phase. Big names like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are driving a large share of demand, but Hayes says they are not yet profitable. Columbia economist Stijn van Nieuwerburgh previously said that $3.7 trillion (€3.3 trillion) in annual revenue would be needed to earn a 10% return on those expenses by 2032. MIT also warned earlier that the huge AI data center bet only works if productivity grows fast enough.
Bitcoin as a Liquidity Sink
Hayes ties his warning to a familiar pattern from earlier tech waves: first there is too much building, then a crash follows, and eventually a bailout. He said investors who position themselves for such a bailout can benefit from it, pointing to the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis.
For crypto, he sees Bitcoin as the main possible winner. Hayes said Bitcoin and other crypto can absorb the excess liquidity when the rescue comes. He expects the moment when the sector is truly tested to arrive only in late 2027 or 2028.
What This Means for Miners
The AI boom is already affecting part of the Bitcoin mining sector. Several former miners have shifted into AI computing, while companies with access to power can relatively easily land contracts, according to BTIG analyst Greg Lewis. That has also helped push up shares of companies including Cipher Digital and TeraWulf.
Riot Platforms also signed a 20-year, $9.1 billion (€8.1 billion) lease in August with Anthropic for 191 megawatts in Texas. The company also sold Bitcoin to help finance that shift. Holdings fell in the second quarter from 15,680 BTC to 11,380 BTC.
For European crypto readers, the key point is that Hayes is not basing his view only on Bitcoin itself, but on the broader link between AI investment, debt buildup, and later liquidity. If the AI sector does run into financing problems, that could also affect companies already trying to ride that demand, including miners that have expanded their business model.
