Binance Research Sees 293 Days Below Trend as a Bitcoin Signal
Binance Research links the recent golden cross to 293 days below the 200-day moving average. The analysis also points to pressure from higher rates, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin formed a golden cross on September 8 after 293 days below its 200-day moving average.
- Binance Research found that earlier golden crosses after deep resets often led to stronger peak gains than crosses after shallow resets.
- Binance says the current macro environment is shaky and wants extra confirmation above the 50-week moving average.
Bitcoin formed a golden cross on September 8 after 293 days below its 200-day moving average over the previous year. According to Binance Research, the depth of that kind of reset may help identify stronger recovery moves.
The analysis from Binance compared that setup with 12 earlier golden crosses. The company split the results into two groups: a shallow reset and a deep reset.
What Earlier Crosses Show
A golden cross happens when the 50-day moving average moves above the 200-day moving average. Binance looked at how many days BTC closed below that long-term average in the 12 months before each cross.
For the six crosses after at least 150 days below trend, peak gains within a year ranged from about 100% to 600%. For the six crosses after a less deep reset, four peaks stayed below 100%.
Still, the picture was not neatly linear. The strongest runs, in February and May 2020, came after a little more than 150 days below trend. The closest comparison at that point came in October 2015, after about 297 days below the average, and that cross later peaked around 150%.
Binance does point out that this is not a solid forecasting model. The numbers refer to the highest price in the following year, not the return from holding for exactly 12 months, and the small, overlapping sample makes hard conclusions difficult.
Why This Matters Now
The recent Bitcoin move is playing out against a shakier macro backdrop. In the same analysis, Binance links BTC’s pullback to rising bond yields, a Brent price above $103 (€91), and weak demand at a U.S. Treasury auction.
At the same time, the U.S. 10-year yield climbed to 5.17% on September 25, the highest level since 2007. According to Binance, expectations for an October rate hike also rose to around 70%.
BTC then pulled back from its recent peak above $86,000 (€75,600) and was trading at $83,175 (€73,100) at the time of publication, according to BeInCrypto Markets. Spot demand held up, though: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs brought in $998.95 million (€878 million) on September 21, the biggest daily inflow of 2026.
The broader market also remains sensitive to rates. Bitcoin had already fallen below $83,000 as oil and rates rose, showing how quickly macro pressure can overshadow the technical setup.
Confirmation Still Needed
Binance sees extra confirmation if Bitcoin stays above its 50-week moving average after the upcoming inflation and labor market data. The PCE price index and payrolls, both due this week, are expected to test that level further.
