Bitcoin Could Drop 30% to $44,000, According to Chinese Miner Jiang Zhuoer

Jiang Zhuoer points to Strategy’s mNAV and bitcoin’s four-year cycle as signs of more weakness ahead. He sees a possible bottom around late 2026.

Key Takeaways

• Jiang Zhuoer expects bitcoin could drop to $42,000 to $44,000 in the fourth quarter, about 30% below the current price.
• He mainly bases that on Strategy’s mNAV, which is now at 0.72 and trading below the value of its bitcoin holdings.
• Based on his four-year cycle model, the bottom is around October 31 at about $44,016, with a possible market bottom in late 2026.

Bitcoin could fall to between $42,000 (€37,000) and $44,000 (€38,800) in the fourth quarter, Jiang Zhuoer predicted. He is one of China’s best-known bitcoin miners and the founder of the LeBit mining pool. That forecast works out to a drop of about 30% from the current price around $60,700 (€53,500).

Analysis of Strategy’s Market Value

Jiang is basing his forecast not just on bitcoin’s price, but mainly on Strategy’s market net asset value (mNAV), the largest publicly traded company holding bitcoin. mNAV is the ratio between a company’s share price and the value of the bitcoin it owns. A value above 1 points to a premium over the bitcoin stash, while a value below 1 reflects investor pessimism.

Right now, Strategy’s mNAV is 0.72, which means the stock is trading about 28% below the value of the underlying bitcoin. That level is similar to the low of 0.7 that Strategy hit in May 2022, just before the previous bottom in bitcoin’s price. Back then, bitcoin reached its lowest point about six months later, around $15,500 (€13,700). Based on that historical lag, Jiang expects the bottom this time to come in late 2026.

Bitcoin’s Price Cycle and Market Sentiment

Along with the mNAV analysis, Jiang uses a model based on bitcoin’s four-year cycle, which is closely tied to the halving events that cut the reward for mining new blocks in half. These cycles are often followed by major bull and bear markets. Jiang compares the price action to a bouncing ball, where each bounce gets smaller as bitcoin’s market value grows.

According to this model, the bottom would be around October 31 at about $44,016 (€38,800), although Jiang says the timing is more reliable than the exact price. That forecast lines up with a period when bitcoin is currently at its 200-week moving average, a technical level that has often come before longer stretches of weakness in the past.

Why This Matters for European Crypto Investors

For European investors, this analysis could matter because it offers a look at possible price floors for bitcoin in the coming months, based on both the market valuation of major holders and historical patterns. That can help with judging risk and planning investment strategies during a period of higher volatility and uncertainty in the crypto market. It also fits into the broader weakness across the market, where Bitcoin Falls Below $60,000 Despite Tech Stock Rebound already pointed to ongoing ETF outflows and a tighter macro backdrop.