Bitcoin Falls Below $83,000 as Cowen Sees Silver-Like Scenario
Bitcoin remains below the bull market support band, while Cowen outlines a longer weak stretch with a silver-like scenario. Ethereum and the Nasdaq are also already showing weakness.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin closed below $83,000 for the second week in a row and is trading around $81,262, which Benjamin Cowen says strengthens the bearish case.
- Cowen sees the bull market support band around $72,000 to $76,000 as the next key level and compares Bitcoin with silver's long decline after 2011.
- Charles Edwards reports a put/call ratio of 1.46 for Bitcoin, pointing to more demand for downside protection.
Bitcoin closed below $83,000 (€74,600) for the second week in a row, keeping it under a level that analyst Benjamin Cowen said was needed to confirm a bullish trend. The BTC price is around $81,262 (€73,000), which supports his view that the recent bounce was a fake-out. At the same time, he points to a possible longer weak stretch, similar to silver's years-long decline after 2011.
Cowen Sees a Fake-Out
Cowen said in his latest video that one weekly close below $83,000 (€74,600) would already favor bears, and that a second close confirms that picture. Bitcoin previously closed at $82,042 (€73,700) and then at $80,154 (€72,000) on October 25. This week, the coin is once again failing to get back above that level.
His next focus is the bull market support band, a zone with the 20-week and 21-week moving averages around $72,000 (€64,700) to $76,000 (€68,300). If Bitcoin drops there, he sees that as a warning that the decline could continue. Ethereum has meanwhile already lost its 50-day moving average and moved toward that same band, just like the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq.
Why Silver Is On His Mind
The comparison with silver is what worries Cowen most. After peaking around $49 (€44) in 2011, silver held up twice more at first, but the rallies eventually faded and the price fell to about $14 (€13) in 2015. Silver is now back around $49.06 (€44) itself, after a sharp drop from the record levels earlier this year.
For Bitcoin, a similar pattern could mean that earlier bounces are mostly temporary recovery moves. Cowen describes a scenario in which a drop to $60,000 (€53,900) and a later rebound would actually attract new sellers. A new bottom below the realized price, the average cost basis of all coins, would only really point to capitulation, according to him.
Why This Matters for Investors
The debate is not just about the short term. Bitcoin is still close to an important technical level, while broader markets like Ethereum are already trading weaker. For European crypto investors, the key point is that signals like these often only become clear after the price has already been under pressure for several weeks.
Earlier this month, the market already showed how quickly a failed breakout can turn into heavy liquidations, which adds extra weight to the current pullback.
Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, meanwhile sees a different short-term picture. His put/call ratio for Bitcoin is at 1.46, which points to more demand for downside protection. According to his chart, similar spikes also appeared around the February and June 2026 bottoms, although 2022 shows that a signal like this does not always mark the end of the decline.
